Auto industry's economic roller coaster ride heads back up in Michigan
Detroit’s automakers are giving new meaning to the phrase “cyclical industry.”
General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC have fallen and are rising again faster than the cars on Cedar Point’s Top Thrill Dragster roller coaster.Â
A little more than a year ago, it was questionable whether GM and Chrysler would even survive. Two years ago, Ford lost a record $14.8 billion.
Today, all three automakers are climbing toward another peak, with Ford leading the charge.
Ford on Tuesday reported a profit of $1.7 billion for the three months ending Sept. 30, the best third quarter in 20 years for the automaker.
Chrysler and GM also are churning out profits again after emerging from bankruptcy little more than a year ago. GM is preparing to float an initial public stock offering in November.
And the auto companies, as they have done so many times in the past, appear to be leading Michigan out of a crippling recession.
“The only source of employment growth in Michigan this year has been the auto industry,” said Sean McAlinden, chief economist at the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor.
While the state has lost a net 21,000 payroll jobs this year, it has added 5,000 auto manufacturing jobs.
McAlinden is forecasting that the automakers and parts suppliers will hire about 135,000 U.S. workers over the next two years as sales improve and the companies replace retiring employees.
Meanwhile automakers are getting hundreds of millions of dollars in state tax breaks to invest in plants that were in grave danger of being closed.
On Tuesday, the Michigan Economic Growth Authority approved a 15-year, $909 million tax credit for Ford, which is investing $850 million to add 1,200 jobs at various plants in the Detroit area.
And the MEGA board said it will give Chrysler a $1.3 billion tax break if it invests in upgrades of its Sterling Heights assembly plant, which the company once planned to close.
GM recently announced it would build the replacement vehicle for the Chevrolet Aveo subcompact and a new Buick compact car at its Orion Township assembly plant, another factory that was on the chopping block.
“These are dead plants coming back to life,” McAlinden said.
Every new Detroit Three job creates as many as four additional spin-off jobs in Michigan, he added.
Those new auto jobs aren’t as lucrative as they used to be, though. The automakers are hiring new production workers at $14 an hour, half of what existing workers earn.
But labor contracts at the Detroit Three and concessions given by workers as a result of the GM and Chrysler bankruptcies are helping automakers prosper.
McAlinden said ending the “jobs bank,” which paid idled workers up to full wages, already is paying dividends.
Automakers no longer are building unneeded cars and trucks just to keep workers busy. That reduces the need for discounting and helps profitability.
Incentive costs at Ford, for instance, fell 7.2 percent in the third quarter, according to Edmunds.com.
The auto industry faces numerous risks, including a choppy economy, tightening government regulations and uncertain energy prices.
Even though automakers appear to be emerging from one of the worst periods of their history, it would be foolish for us to slip back into thinking that autos will save us.
As recent events have shown, the auto industry ride is wilder than ever.
“Anything can happen if you’re an auto company,” McAlinden said.
Rick Haglund covered Michigan business for Booth Newspapers and now writes this weekly column as a freelancer. E-mail Rick Haglund here.
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Comments
David Ham
Tue, Nov 2, 2010 : 9:54 p.m.
Over $750,000 in tax breaks per job. Truly amazing.
Terry Redding
Thu, Oct 28, 2010 : 6:07 a.m.
First off, I have to admit that while many of my neighbors have (white collar) jobs in the auto industry, I in no way am associated nor do I directly benefit from the auto industry either here in MI or in the larger economy. That said, does it seem like good economic policy to pay $909 million for 1,200 jobs? That comes to $757,500 per job. Assume that the average worker gets $20/hr (not the $14 cited, just to be generous in my calculation). That's (maybe) $2,400/year in income taxes to MI or, $2,880,000 per year. Project out 20 years (can we safely say the plant will be viable for 20 years?)and that's $57 million in personal taxes plus whatever property taxes the local community can extract. It seems to me that the good people of Michigan just gave Ford (and soon even more to Chrysler) one hell of a deal. Could the money have been better spent elsewhere? Or perhaps never taken from the taxpayers (that's you and me everyone) in the first place? One last thought, even if the multiplier effect was 4X, revenue back to the state rises to a paultry $228M over 20 years, still far short of the $909M we are giving to Ford. I don't get it.
AlphaAlpha
Thu, Oct 28, 2010 : 5:57 a.m.
It's worth noting that total compensation for auto new hires is very substantially greater than $14 per hour. As much as ~ three times $14/hr.