You are viewing this article in the AnnArbor.com archives. For the latest breaking news and updates in Ann Arbor and the surrounding area, see MLive.com/ann-arbor
Posted on Tue, Jul 27, 2010 : 11:31 a.m.

Lithium-ion battery improvements will eventually make Chevy Volt affordable

By Nathan Bomey

(Updated: This story has been updated after GM officially announced the starting pricepoint of the Volt.)

The Chevrolet Volt is to electric vehicles as early personal computers were to the technology industry.

Just like the first VHS players, computers, digital cameras and microwaves were in their day, the first version of General Motors’ Volt will be unaffordable to the typical consumer.

But technology improvements over time will drive down the price. GM today set the Volt's suggested retail price at $41,000, though consumers will also be able to lease the Volt for as low as $350 a month for 36 months and $2,500 due upfront.

"The early buyers are going to be willing to pay that kind of money for that size of vehicle and that kind of vehicle," said Bruce Belzowski, assistant research scientist for the University of Michigan's Transportation Research Institute. "But in the bigger picture, if you want more people to buy, you’re going to have to keep the price within range for that type of vehicle.

Just like other technologies, though, the price of electric vehicles will plummet over time. That’s because the lithium-ion battery technology that allows the Volt to travel 40 miles on a single electrical charge before using gasoline is improving day by day.

volt.jpg

General Motors plans to start selling the Chevrolet Volt, an extended-range electric vehicle, later this year.

Companies like Ann Arbor-based Sakti3 - a University of Michigan spinoff - and the Ann Arbor engineering office of AVL Powertrain are feverishly developing alternative propulsion technology for the major automakers.

The high cost of the Volt will be offset by a $7,500 federal tax credit for early buyers, which is built into the lease pricing. That government incentive makes electric vehicles artificially cheaper for a little while, giving engineers and scientists time to make the batteries lighter and more reliable.

"I think it becomes a volume issue," Belzowski said. "As the economies of scale kick in, the price of the components will go down, but there is a certain amount of engineering, continuous improvement that will be a part of that as well."

GM is confident the Volt, which will first hit showrooms in November, will be just as reliable as a traditional internal combustion engine vehicle. In fact, GM recently announced it would provide an eight-year, 100,000-mile warranty on the car’s 400-pound battery pack.

Nonetheless, the battery’s electrochemical makeup needs to improve before vehicles like the Volt and Nissan’s forthcoming battery electric Leaf are affordable to the typical consumer.

The U.S. Department of Energy earlier this month projected the price of electric vehicle batteries would drop 70 percent by 2015.

It should be said that some experts are skeptical the price of the lithium-ion batteries will plummet, despite significant investments in research and production at future Michigan plants such as LG Chem's operation in Holland and Dow Chemical's plant in Midland.

The research firm Boston Consulting Group, for example, said in a report earlier this year that it foresees "substantial challenges" in driving the cost of electric vehicle batteries down to the industry's goal of $250 per kilowatt hour. Costs are currently estimated at between $1,000 and $1,250.

Belzowski said the Energy Department's projection "might be a bit of a stretch," but he was also dubious about the Boston Consulting Group's prediction.

"Ten years is a long time and you don’t know what’s going to happen during that time," he said. "Some kind of oil shock or a big push, something that creates a lot of enthusiasm or a need to make those kinds of transitions -- they can push the curve in terms of speeding up the process. The government’s obviously going to have to play a role here and if they don’t push it, it’s probably not going to happen."

GM knows early adopters will pay a premium for the Volt, which will be a status car for alternative energy enthusiasts.

For now, don’t expect Ann Arbor area dealers to have a hard time selling the Volt, despite the pricepoint. GM plans to make just 10,000 Volts for the first year, meaning dealers that agree to carry the car will only have a few.

Dexter’s LaFontaine Chevrolet, for example, plans to have two Volts for sale starting in March, sales manager Shadrick Bennett said. Interest in the Volt has been high, he said.

“We’ll order as many as they allow us,” he said. “That’s our first allotment.”

Bennett said the dealership’s owners will decide whether to accept pre-orders for the Volt and how to price it.

“I’m sure there will be a premium on it if we’re going only getting two of them,” he said.

Of course, customers will eventually be able to order custom versions of the Volt. Chevy said Monday, for example, that it would offer the Volt in six colors: black, silver ice metallic, crystal red metallic tintcoat, white diamond tricoat, cyber gray metallic and viridian joule tricoat.

Rest assured the price of paint, however, is staying steady.

Contact AnnArbor.com's Nathan Bomey at (734) 623-2587 or nathanbomey@annarbor.com. You can also follow him on Twitter or subscribe to AnnArbor.com's newsletters.

Comments

PittsfieldTwp

Wed, Jul 28, 2010 : 9:22 a.m.

AfterDark - the gas engine is the same engine GM is putting in the Chevy Cruze (good car choice, by the way). Regardless of the size, its internal combustion that still needs gas engine maintenance and it takes away space that could be used for more batteries to extend range. Nathan - 70 miles (Leaf) will cover significantly more average commutes than 40. I suspect that the range anxiety is not actual research based but rather assumption, and range anxiety would start going away at 100+ where Tesla currently is. Auto mfg's have many assumptions about what the consumer "wants" regarding electric cars. And like "Lokal.." states, this was an opportunity to go big or go home. Telsa drive trains are minimum of 100 mile range with some configurations reaching 300 miles. It would seem that GM could also be at that point using the same amount of resources and time that was spent on small electric range with gas generator back up. As found when talking with EV1 owners, the extreme low maintenance factor was a huge unexpected benefit of all electric.

Val Losse

Wed, Jul 28, 2010 : 8:12 a.m.

Here we go again. The government handing out that funny money that they keep printing to screw around with our economy and driving the value of the dollar lower. Where the hell do you think the government is getting that $7,500 from. It is coming out of your pocket or somebody else's pocket. When any electric car becomes a good deal people will buy it and not before. Also,people better remember that the gas engine does require maintenance. The engine cannot just be there and never be on as things will start to happen to it. The gasoline will require a stabelizer so as it gets old it won't break down and gum up the ports which will cause it not to run. An expensive fix. I also wonder what the cost of getting rid of the old batteries will be and who will pay for that?

McGiver

Wed, Jul 28, 2010 : 6:42 a.m.

Totally ridiculous that public funds are expended (7500 tax credit) for each owner to drive one of these. If it is that good a car, it should stand on its own merits.

AfterDark

Tue, Jul 27, 2010 : 8:54 p.m.

You people aren't understanding the system in the car. It does NOT have a standard sized gasoline car engine. It has a small onboard generator - less weight, much better fuel efficiency, only runs when the batteries are depleted below a certain percentage of charge, and allows the car to continue to be driven after the initial charge has all been used.

Lokalisierung

Tue, Jul 27, 2010 : 6:29 p.m.

I had no idea this was going to have an engine as well as a motor, which is just lame. Make up your mind, go big or go home. You're just adding more weight to the thing and adding problems down the line. Sad.

pseudo

Tue, Jul 27, 2010 : 5:09 p.m.

Not to be condescending but how is this car a big deal? We have various versions of cars that are hybrid, battery run, gas back up or not or whatever for years. How is this car, at 41K any better?

AfterDark

Tue, Jul 27, 2010 : 11:23 a.m.

PittsfieldTwp, there should be little gas engine maintenance with the Volt. The engine it carries is just a generator used to recharge the battery pack, it does not have a drivetrain connection to power the vehicle directly.

Nathan Bomey

Tue, Jul 27, 2010 : 11:19 a.m.

I've updated the story after GM officially said the Volt will start at $41,000. @PittsfieldTwp, excellent point. That is definitely part of the discussion. Alternatively, however, "range anxiety" comes into play for the Nissan Leaf and other electric vehicles without a gas engine to extend the life of the battery. http://schott.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/15/range-anxiety/ Auto companies say that owners of battery-electric cars without a gas engine are more prone to fretting that their battery will lose its charge before they can make it home to plug in. So, there are positives and negatives on both sides.

PittsfieldTwp

Tue, Jul 27, 2010 : 10:55 a.m.

Another idea for a survey: Would you rather buy an electric car that goes 40 miles on electric then switches to gas powered back up and deal with gas engine maintenance? Or, would you rather own an electric car that goes 70+ miles on a charge with no back up but no gas engine maintenance? This is the actual situation that electric car buyers will encounter at the end of the year.