The Ann Arbor area joined the rest of the nation in watching home sales free-fall in recent years, and now it’s sharing in the signs of hope for recovery.

Local sales data for 2009 show some reason for optimism: Unit sales stayed flat over 2008, and a year-end rush helped power those totals.

Market experts are hoping that momentum continues as the sector heads toward the spring sales market. And local industry experts are cautiously forecasting 2010 should yield slightly more home and condo sales than 2009.

Even a 2 percent sales gain over the 3,649 homes sold through the Ann Arbor Area Board of Realtors in 2009 would represent an additional 73 units. At an average sale price of $182,287, that would pump $1.3 million more into the annual sales total of $630 million.

Many Ann Arbor area real estate offices report their January sales totals were higher than January 2009, when the market seemed frozen in the wake of the national banking crisis.

“We have a stronger pipeline as we start 2010 of pending transactions than any year recently,” said Dave Lutton, president of the Charles Reinhart Co.

Other brokers also report high levels of activity.

“As we bring houses onto the market, showings are immediate and constant,” said Sharon Snyder, broker with Prudential Snyder & Co. Realtors in Ann Arbor.

Federal tax credits for both first-time buyers and existing homeowners may be driving some of the activity - though many brokers say those buyers likely would be in the market anyway.

Also at play, brokers said, are low interest rates and the average listing price falling below $200,000, adding to the region’s affordability.

“There’s also an overall sense of optimism,” said Jeff Stabnau, general manager of Real Estate One’s Ann Arbor office.

That optimism follows a year Lutton calls “a transition year for the market.”

Last year, after years of price declines, volume drops and a buyer’s market due to high inventory, the market seems to have found stability on the price and inventory fronts, Lutton said.

The falling prices in the market were impacted by the number of foreclosures, and short sales climbed to an estimated 35 percent.

Foreclosures will continue to pressure the resale market, brokers said.

“The number of foreclosures entering the market will remain vigorous in the state of Michigan,” said Ed Surovell of Edward Surovell Realtors.

That’s true for Washtenaw County, where 113 new sheriff’s deeds were recorded in January - a 133 percent increase over January 2009. The majority of those homes are likely to hit the market after the six-month redemption period, experts said.

At the same time, inventory is dropping, said Chet Hill, a broker at Keller Williams Ann Arbor. That’s most notable in the under-$200,000 price range in Ann Arbor and south of Ypsilanti.

The drop in supply while demand stays active is keeping prices in many areas from falling further, experts said. But the market still isn’t seeing notable price jumps - and that's still impacting homeowners who may want to sell but owe more on the home than it could sell for.

Appraisers Kurt Schmerberg and Peter Hendershot of Affinity Valuation Group said price stabilization has been evident in several submarkets - notably Chelsea and southeast Ann Arbor - over the past few quarters. A few, like Saline, Dexter and northwest Ann Arbor, are staying flat.

“Most of the submarkets are trending upward,” Hendershot said. “Is it going to keep trending up? It looks like it.”

But he added there’s still a significant drop from the heights of the market: “Is your house worth what it was in 2006? Probably not.”

The outlook is good for sellers of homes under $200,000, due to the affordability for first-time buyers. But activity remains slow in homes priced over $400,000, Hill said.

Even with the early-year momentum, brokers say the story of 2010’s real estate performance will be told on a month-by-month basis.

Too many uncontrollable factors that can impact sales, Surovell said. Interest rates, employment rates and political fallout from the state’s gubernatorial election could all influence the market.

The end of the federal buyer credits this spring also could cause an activity falloff, Lutton said. But it also could go unnoticed, he added, since other factors could be driving sales.

“We know there are some bargains in the marketplace. We know that many of the homes in the market couldn’t be reproduced for the prices they’re now selling for,” he said. “We also know people have postponed their real estate decisions.”