Albert Claude, a Belgian biologist who shared the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 1974, said, "In the name of the experimental method and out of our poor knowledge, are we really entitled to claim that everything happens by chance, to the exclusion of all other possibilities?"

At the bridge table, there is an element of chance. But you can often improve the likelihood of making your contract if you consider all of the possibilities.

This deal contains several possibilities. South is in four hearts. West leads a low trump. Declarer wins and returns a heart, West taking his ace and playing a third round, while East discards two diamonds. How should South continue?

North might have rebid four hearts.

There are four potential losers: two spades, one heart and one club.

A tempting line is to cash dummy's club ace, return to hand with a diamond, and take the club finesse.

It is better to cash both of dummy's top clubs before playing a third round. If West has the club queen, South is always safe because West cannot attack spades with effect. With this layout, though, both of those lines fail, assuming East shifts to a spade when in with the club queen.

The correct line is to play a diamond to dummy's king, then to lead a spade to, say, the jack. West wins and shifts to a club, but declarer wins and plays another spade. Dummy's 10 is established, on which South can pitch his third club. He takes one spade, five hearts, two diamonds and two clubs without any element of chance.

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