Will Rogers said, "An economist's guess is liable to be as good as anybody else's."

A bridge expert's guess is liable to be better than a lesser player's. In this deal, how should South plan the play in four spades after West leads the club queen?

South's jump to four spades is normal, but he might guess to rebid three no-trump. North would then have to guess whether to pass (he has 4-3-3-3 distribution) or to remove to four spades (he has four trumps). Here, three no-trump has nine easy tricks.

South has four potential losers: three hearts and one diamond. In real life, he might guess that either East has the heart ace or West has the diamond king. But in a lesson setting or a newspaper column, declarer should know that East will have the diamond king and West the heart ace. How can South still survive?

If declarer wins the first trick, draws trumps, and takes the diamond finesse, East wins with his king and shifts to the heart queen -- the contract is kaput.

Instead, South should duck the first trick. He takes the club continuation with his ace, draws trumps ending on the board, throws a diamond on the club king, cashes the diamond ace, and continues with the diamond jack.

If East plays low, declarer discards a heart and has 10 tricks (six spades, two diamonds and two clubs), even if West produces the king. If East covers, declarer ruffs, returns to dummy with a trump, and cashes the last diamond. He is home with no guesswork.

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