Flying Saucers were a popular idea in the 1950s. This image from federal archives was taken in 1952 in New Jersey.

Courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.

Editor's note: This post is part of a series by Dr. Baker on Our Values about core American values. This week Dr. Baker is discussing the world's long-standing fascination with predicting The End, and why America may be particularly fertile ground for this obsession.

If the earth shakes on Saturday, we’ll know that Christian radio broadcaster Harold Camping’s prediction may be right. As we’ve discussed this week, Camping and his followers expect The Rapture to occur this weekend, heralded by worldwide earthquakes. This event will usher in the End of Days foretold in the Bible.

But what can we expect if Camping’s prophecy fails? Camping had been wrong before when he predicted that the End Times would start in 1994. What if he’s wrong again?

When Prophecy Fails, a book written by social psychologist Leon Festinger and his colleagues 50 years ago sheds light on what may happen. Festinger had a theory of “cognitive dissonance” that explains the psychological consequences of disconfirmed prophecies or expectations.

Festinger and his team went undercover, pretending to be believers of a Chicago group whose leader had received messages via automatic writing from planet Clarion. Like Camping’s followers, members of the group quit their jobs, left families and friends, and gave away their assets.

Instead of massive earthquakes, the group expected a great flood. Believers would then be swept up by a flying saucer.

When the predicted time of the flood passed, the believers were distraught. Hours later, the leader received another message via automatic writing, saying that the earth had been spared due to the devotion of the believers.

The disconfirmation of their prediction created extreme cognitive dissonance — a clash between their beliefs (a great flood, ascent in a saucer) and actions (like giving away their assets) versus what actually didn’t happen.

One option would be to change their minds. But another option was to redouble their recruiting efforts and enthusiasm, seeking social support of their beliefs.

“If more and more people can be persuaded that the system of belief is correct,” Festinger said, “then clearly it must after all be correct.”

So, if Camping’s predictions don’t come true, we might expect him and his followers to change their minds — or to harden their beliefs and redouble their efforts to convert non-believers. While the second option may seem illogical, it’s still illuminating.

We’ve discussed several times on OurValues.org what happens when facts and values clash. Often, values are preserved, and the facts are dismissed or discounted.

Sunday may come and go, but that does not necessarily mean Camping and his followers will admit defeat. In fact, what happened in 1994 may repeat itself. Camping could conclude that there was a miscalculation in his math and work to find yet another Doomsday date.

Why is America fertile ground for apocalyptic prophecies? Predictions of the End Times are as old as religion itself, and there’s a long line of failed prophecies. America does not have a monopoly on doomsday prophecies, but our culture is fertile ground for them.

One reason is simple: Religion is strong in America. Despite our religious diversity, Christians remain the largest single category — and the Bible includes predictions about the return of Jesus, world wars, and other events associated with the End of Days.

Most white evangelical Christians in America believe Christ will or probably will return to earth in the next 40 years, according to a poll taken by Pew last year. And, most Americans expect a world war by 2050.

The expectation of the Second Coming and another world war combines with the idea of America’s moral destiny. It began when the Puritans saw their new settlement as a “city upon a hill” — as Puritan John Winthrop put it in his sermon “A Model of Christian Charity.”

Over time, Americans developed what Reinhold Niebuhr called “a religious version of our national destiny which interpreted the meaning of our nationhood as God’s effort to make a new beginning in the history of mankind.”

Even today, two of three Americans believe our nation has a special responsibility to be the leading nation in world affairs, according to Gallup.

The mix of religious prophecy and a national moral destiny is a potent combination. Camping’s prediction isn’t the first. It won’t be the last.

What do you think we’ll read on Sunday about Camping and his followers?
Do apocalyptic prophecies have an appeal to you?
Do you believe Jesus will come again in the next 40 years?
Do you agree with most Americans that we have a moral destiny?

Dr. Wayne E. Baker is a sociologist on the faculty of the University of Michigan Ross School of Business. Baker blogs daily at Our Values and can be reached at ourvaluesproject@gmail.com or on Facebook.