Birk's Eye View: 5 predictions for Michigan's season
Preseason camp is over, game week is here, and it’s time to take a fresh look - and make some hard predictions - about Michigan’s season:
• Michigan goes 6-6. I was wobbling between six and seven wins and ending up docking the Wolverines a game due to recent distractions. Regardless, I think Michigan is a better football team this year. There are more pieces in place that fit Rich Rodriguez's system and there will be noticeable growth on the field. But at the end of the day, Michigan's relying on too much youth - including freshmen quarterbacks - and has too tough a schedule to make a quantum leap. I have Michigan beating Western, Eastern, Indiana, Purdue, Delaware State and upsetting Illinois to make a bowl.
• Tate Forcier starts most of the season at quarterback. Forcier is the most well-rounded signal caller Michigan has. He’s not Denard Robinson fast, but he can run the spread option and he makes defenses respect the passing game. Robinson will see time in all 12 games, and not just as a Wildcat option. Nick Sheridan is in the mix early, too, but eventually he’s relegated to backup status.
• Brandon Graham is team MVP, with Donovan Warren close behind. Not really going out on a limb here, but Graham is a disruptive force who gets overlooked nationally because of last year’s 3-9 record. He’ll see lots of double teams this year, but Greg Robinson will move him around enough to still get double-digit sacks. Warren has a rebound year of sorts. He’ll get beat like every cornerback, but he finishes with four interceptions and starts the year off right with a solid game Saturday.
• Carlos Brown leads the team in rushing with 820 yards. OK, so I’m a bit concerned about Brandon Minor’s health. He missed a lot of camp with post-concussion symptoms and an ankle injury, and last year he played through wrist problems. Brown’s a senior and was ticketed for plenty of time anyway. I think we’ll finally get a long look at what he can do. Vincent Smith and Michael Shaw will get carries, too, but they’re a year away from big-time production.
• The Wolverines self-report two secondary infractions in response to allegations they violated NCAA rules concerning practice time. The violations, for illegally viewing offseason workouts, are not enough to bring Rodriguez down, but his hot seat gets significantly warmer for 2010.
Comments
local boy
Sun, Sep 6, 2009 : 9:06 a.m.
Give the guy a break. He came into a program without the players he needed to be successful. He's been here for one season! My god let's see what he can do by year 3 and then judge him. I've met and talked to Coach a few times informally and he's a stand up guy. I know in my job I had to perform the first year, but I certainly improved as time went by. Let's see if he does.
old u o m alum
Fri, Sep 4, 2009 : 9:03 p.m.
Too many people have forgotten the days of the 1960's when you walk into the stadium after the first quarter for free. When Bo came people complained that he was not a Michigan Man and we would lose. But he ended up walking on water. Only time will tell what will happen with Rod but let's give him a chance. The basketball team not only made the NCAA but won a game and was good in the 2nd one, What school did both men coach for before Michigan.
scottyb029
Fri, Sep 4, 2009 : 7:09 p.m.
I gave RR 2 years too turn the program around. This is year 2, I pretty much agree with Dave but I see them beating Notre Dame also so I give The Big Blue a 7 win season. The latest fopa about too much practice....come on they were 3 and 9 last year, give me a break. I really wanted to see Mr. English take over for Mr. Carr and was really surprised that they went with RR. But we have to accept it. Do not have to like it but we have to accept it. So RR has this year to get us respectable again. And all the peeps crying foul..are the ones that left. Who got dissed in RR scheme of things. Hey if half of the guys that are complaining if you plan on making it to the NFL....get used to the "well sorry dude you just don't fit the program" I do not believe RR did anything wrong. Maybe it is a witch hunt,I know alot of Allumi were not happy with the Call...But get the heck over it and lets get out there and support our team!!!I really think it will not effect the way Michigan will play this year... GO BLUE!!
rreidannarbor
Fri, Sep 4, 2009 : 10:03 a.m.
It's fun to product Wins and losses and 6 wins seems reasonable. I'm still amazed at how our society lacks the ability to take the long view on just about anything. One year and a few small controversies and suddenly everyone's calling for RR's head. He gets a least 5 years to prove himself and hopefully stay above the fray on all the other stuff. Who is it that sits in these little rooms at SI and elsewhere and conjours up the idea of coaches being on hot seats? Does someone have a camera on the wall at Schembechler Hall? Take the long view of this, please. If we are 3-9 or 6-6 in 2012 and 2013, then OK, time to re-look at it. Until then, I guess the "fanatics" will dream of hot seats and gestapo like meetings between Bill Martin & RR behind closed doors! Let's give RR his opportuity to shine before we start calling for his head. I'm sure there is not one of us who wouldn't love to see 9 wins this year but that might happen. Even if its 5 wins and no bowl game, yes its dissappinting but don't start marching towards Schembechler Hall with torches and guns just yet!
bluedog
Fri, Sep 4, 2009 : 9:35 a.m.
Michigan football had one really bad year n now u think we're in a down turn? r u crazy!!!!!? we had a totally new system that only very few players from U of M could actually run in a few months... this year we have a whole team that can run rich rods spread.. afast accurate freshman QB, fast powerful HBs, fast explosive WRs and fast Defense. this team is about speed n ur going to see it come saturday.
11GOBLUE11
Fri, Sep 4, 2009 : 7:54 a.m.
WHOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOO!!! I feel like I'm starting tomorrow! GO BLUE!!!!!!!!
Chris
Thu, Sep 3, 2009 : 11:27 p.m.
I don't care about predictions, I care about what actually happens. I hate when journalist forget to make it clear that they are in no way experts and just having fun. I mean, the Birk's Eye View (which is a stretching pun) is no more valid than the fan boy's undefeated/9-3 season. That said, I tend to also believe all the games are winnable. Gerry DiNardo said he only thinks Michigan has more talent than six teams on its schedule. I find that laughable. Iowa does not have more talent, nor does Wisconsin or Purdue or MSwho. There are four teams that recruit as well as Michigan on their schedule: OSU, PSU, ND and Illinois. Getting back to this article for a second, if you wobble on your prediction and use this "media distraction" as your reasoning for predicting Ws and Ls, then your analysis is pretty weak. Same with DiNardo's. There are a million factors in winning a game. Michigan has lots of talent, speed, and a great coaching scheme. The coaches are battle-tested. We have a great new DC, and thankfully Morgan Trent is gone, and Stevie Brown was moved. If we can hold on to the ball this year, we have a better QB and O-line situation, and more depth at RB than any team in the conference. All I can say is, keep doubting the Blue, media. And keep wasting your time making ludicrous comments about a team you hate, trolls. (Seriously, if you spend your time going after trashing the other team, then you really spend a lot of time just living negatively. Why not go support your own team. You must be the kind of person that other people really don't like to hang around or talk to in real life. I mean, if you get your kicks trying to make others mad, then you really, really, really should look into doing your overall life. There're valid psychological issues in anyone that spends that much time basically using their little finger to keep jabbing at the ribs of their daddy. In other words, you have the maturity of a five-year-old, and probably the mindset and personal skills to go with it.
GOBLUE1973
Thu, Sep 3, 2009 : 9:53 p.m.
I just hope if michigan doesn't make a bowl game this year that everyone can at least look into the future and not make a rash decision to get rid of RR. This team is STILL very young with alot of very talented freshmen and sophs expected to contribute this year. If you follow recruiting at all RR is putting his pieces together even after a terrible season. He's gonna have more talent then he has ever had to work with in his coaching career here. It's just not ready yet. If he goes after year two, this program will be set back for many years to come. WE NEED TO BE PATIENT!!!! even if the wins don't come this year things are still moving in the right direction. The talent (or lack of talent) with the upper classmen is not his fault. I mean most of the underclassmen we'll see this year (and there are alot of them) would normally be redshirts either this year or last, but unfortunately they are the most talented players at thier positions so they are going to play. At this point he's doing the best with what he has, let's save our judgements for after his fourth year.
kerch65
Thu, Sep 3, 2009 : 9:39 p.m.
I would think that some of you so called MICHIGAN FANS would use your head for more than just a hat rack you should learn to stand behind the coach and throw your support his way give him a chance to do the job instead of acting like spoiled children i expect that behavior from the cheating suckeyes or the babling buffoons from east lansing GO BLUE
jacksmom
Thu, Sep 3, 2009 : 9 p.m.
As a UM alumnus and someone born and raised in A2, I will not ever be a fan of Michigan football. People wonder how this can be possible, and from now on, I should direct those inquiring folks to this website's comment section regarding football to explain why. Are you MI fans serious? "There's not a game on the schedule that Michigan can't win," or "UM will go 9-3 this year"- insanity!! Accept that your mighty football program is in a downturn and stop embarrassing yourselves. Next predictions from UM fans? The Wolverines will win the Super Bowl, Lloyd Carr will cure cancer and Bo Schembechler's ghost will solve the health care crisis.
Kubrick66
Thu, Sep 3, 2009 : 8:03 p.m.
BoulderLion... Thank you for your continued obsession with all things Michigan Football. I'm sure we'll disappoint you by winning lots of games.
mguy1
Thu, Sep 3, 2009 : 7:41 p.m.
This is a conservative assesment and possibly a good prediction. I personally believe Coach Rodriguez and this Michigan Team will achieve 8 wins. It is unfortunate that the Michigan Fans are so critical of Coach Rodriguez, which I personally believe will become one of Michigan's greatest football coaches. It is not Coach Rodriguez's fault that the Athletic Director poorly managed the transition from the Lloyd Carr era to the Rich Rodriguez era. The Michigan Football Program is a National Institution in College Sports and no way - no how should the transition been managed so poorly considering the Athletic Director knew a year in advance Lloyd Carr was going to retire. Coach Rodriguez in a proven winner and he is a Michigan Man now. So the Michigan Family of Fans need to support Coach Rodriguez and respect the knowledge he brings to Michigan. Give him the time he needs to recruit the talent to support his system. Coach Rodriguez is our guy, let's keep the family together and keep the outsiders on the outside.
Kubrick66
Thu, Sep 3, 2009 : 6:54 p.m.
There's not a game on the schedule that Michigan can't win.
tater
Thu, Sep 3, 2009 : 6:04 p.m.
UM will go 9-3 this year, and RR's detractors will find something else to troll, whine about, or sensationalize. Well, most of them, anyway. We're probably stuck with at least one in the A2/milve community.
tater
Thu, Sep 3, 2009 : 6:01 p.m.
"Sports Illustrated also makes some other predictions about Michigans upcoming season, specifically about RichRod being on the coaching hot seat." Of course they did. Tabloid journalism gets clicks, and clicks make money. So, the more ludicrouis their "predictions," the more money they make for SI. What really sucks about this is that none of them will say they were wrong when RR thrives at UM. They will just move on to the next lie.
Txmaizenblue
Thu, Sep 3, 2009 : 5:58 p.m.
I'm predicting 6-6 also, but I believe they will beat Norte Dame and Michigan State...just a hunch. Forcier - Big Ten Freshman of the Year Robinson will lead the team in rushing :O) And last but not least, Weis's Identify will be confused with Grimace at least once this fall.
Chrysta Cherrie
Thu, Sep 3, 2009 : 5:48 p.m.
I removed some comments that contained personal attacks. We understand that Michigan football is a contentious issue, but remember to keep the conversation civil. You can read about/discuss the comment moderation guidelines here. Thanks.
amazenblue
Thu, Sep 3, 2009 : 5:45 p.m.
Analysis is very conservative, safe and completely avoids any commentary on whether this team will jell as a team. You write like an outsider, no different than one might find from some beat writer in Lafeyette covering the Wolverines. Expect more from A2.
maizenbluenc
Thu, Sep 3, 2009 : 4:52 p.m.
Well, we've seen how much the press -- especially the national media knows about what is or is not going on in Ann Arbor. Hate to say it, but 6-6 is a real possibility if we take injuries on defense (ala the offensive line last year), and can't get the offense going enough (with a broad enough playbook) to outscore the opponent in the face of a shallow defense. We ought to win at least one of the three plus one rivalry games (ND or MSU most likley, OSU and PSU less but played a lot closer than last year). I believe (hope) the offense is way underated based on projections from last years dysfunctional zoo. The defense staying healthy is key though. So another roller coaster ride on the way folks. Hope for 8-4 or 7-5, expect a 6-6. Anything less than a bowl game and Rich's seat'll get a whole bunch hotter. Go Blue!
2000Blue
Thu, Sep 3, 2009 : 4:43 p.m.
Hot seat? I understand the pressure to win, but seriously? Bill Martin took a big risk in going "outside the family" for this hire and to give Rich Rodriguez only 2 years is crazy. Coach Rodriguez will get the minimum 4. Bill Martin kept Tommy Amaker for way too long, even after never making the NCAA tournament, with decent talent.