Week 5 high school football predictions; pick with your head, not your heart
I hate to break it to all you high school football fans out there, but by the time you’re checking Friday’s scores, more of the high school football season will be over than there is left.
But that’s taking a very pessimistic view of the landscape. An optimist would say that - counting every round of the playoffs - the season will be barely more than a third of the way done at week’s end.
Since last week was my best week of picks yet (10-1) against the readers’ worst (7-4) on the AnnArbor.com interactive poll, I’ll be an optimist and look at the glass as two-thirds full, but I would advise the readers to do the opposite while making picks and put loyalties aside.
My Achilles’ heel in my worst weeks of picks was a tendency to pick Washtenaw County teams in out-of-county matchups. Also known as being a homer.
Embarrassed that, my picks record had spiraled to such lows that my trusted colleague, Bob Gross, pulled me aside and advised me to sip on a little Hater-ade before looking over the week’s slate of games.
“If you think they’re going to lose, pick them to lose,” Bob said in his best Ivan Drago voice.
I took a large gulp, picking two Lenawee County teams (Adrian and Morenci) and two Monroe County teams (Bedford and Carleton Airport) to win over Washtenaw County teams (Chelsea, Whitmore Lake, Saline and Milan) and went 4-0 in said matchups.
The readers went 1-3 and were just one vote in the Whitmore Lake versus Morenci poll from being winless.
So my advice to the readers: Pick with your head, not your heart. Or as Drago would say
“I fight to win, for me! For me!"
Bedford (4-0, 3-0 SEC) at Pioneer (2-2, 2-1 SEC): Besides their respective games against Saline’s bruising defense, these teams have averaged 48.0 (Pioneer) and 40.3 (Bedford) points per game. Both offenses can - and will - score, so it could come down to who gets the ball last. If that happens to be Bedford, the Kicking Mules have the benefit of only needing to reach the 30-yard-line to score on account of the booming leg Brendan Renius. Bedford, 45-42.
Manchester (3-1, 2-1 Cascades) at Addison (3-1, 3-0 Cascades): Addison hasn’t given up more than a pair of touchdowns since its opening-week loss to Onsted. The Panthers also haven’t had to deal with anything close to the receiving trio of Devin Jose (396 yards receiving, 7 TDs), Brandon Casey (336 yards, 2 TDs) and Josh Blades (270 yards receiving, 3 TDs), who make quarterback Nate “Hugo” Bossory look better every week. Manchester, 35-28.
Adrian (4-0, 3-0 SEC) at Ypsilanti (2-2, 2-1 SEC): Ypsilanti looked like a running team in the first three weeks, but against Tecumseh quarterback Aaerion Allen (15-of-18 passing, 299 yards, 3 TDs) proved the Phoenix are just as lethal through the air. Adrian will be much better equipped to defend the aerial attack than the Indians were, though. Adrian, 30-29.
Saline (2-2, 1-2 SEC) at Monroe (2-2, 2-1 SEC): Saline doesn’t score a lot of points -- 18 per game -- but if its defense plays the way it has been the past two weeks, the Hornets shouldn’t have to. Saline surrendered 21 combined points against Bedford and Pioneer, two teams averaging more than 40 points per contest in their other three games. Saline, 21-14.
Chelsea (3-1, 2-1 SEC) at Lincoln (0-4, 0-3 SEC): The Railsplitters have scored exactly two offensive touchdowns this season and only four total. Chelsea, 45-0.
Huron (1-3, 1-2 SEC) at Skyline (0-4, 0-3 SEC): Huron needs to win out to make the playoffs, while Skyline is still searching for its first varsity win. If the Eagles can keep River Rats defensive end Kyle Baker off of quarterback Andrew Copp (965 passing yards, 9 TDs), Skyline’s first win could be punctuated by the fact that its over a cross-town rival. Huron, 33-30.
Melvindale Academy for Business and Technology (2-2) at Willow Run (3-1): This isn’t “Saved By The Bell.” Just because a school is comprised of so-called “computer nerds” doesn’t mean those same kids aren’t great athletes, as evidenced by Melvindale ABT’s 2010 Class C basketball state championship. That said, Willow Run is off to its best start since 1995. Willow Run, 27-12.
Father Gabriel Richard (4-0, 2-0 CHSL) at Clarenceville (3-1, 1-0 Metro): Richard’s starters only got to play for about a half last week. Could be the case again. Richard, 48-13
Dexter (2-2, 1-2 SEC) at Tecumseh (1-3, 1-2 SEC): Over-under for pass attempts by Tecumseh: 3.5. Over-under for runs up the middle for Tecumseh: 55.5. Over-under for tackles made by Dexter on fake ball carrier: 78.5. Over-under on times PA announcer announces incorrect Tecumseh ball carrier: 26.5. Dexter, 29-22
Grosse Ile (2-2, 1-2 Huron League) at Milan (3-1, 2-1 Huron): After dropping an overtime heartbreaker to Carleton Airport, the Big Reds should get right back on track. Milan, 24-13.
Britton-Deerfield (2-2, 0-2 Tri-County) at Whitmore Lake (0-4, 0 TCC): The rebuilding project continues at Whitmore Lake. Britton-Deerfield, 35-10
Season Record: 34-9 (.791) Last week: 10-1 (.909). Best Pick: Carleton Airport 40, Milan 35 (Airport won 37-36). Worst Pick: Huron 14, Monroe 7 (Monroe won 50-29). Readers’ season record: 31-10-1 (.738) Last Week: 7-4 (.636).
Pete Cunningham covers sports for AnnArbor.com and can be reached at petercunningham@annarbor.com or by phone at 734-623-2561. Follow him on Twitter @petcunningham.
Comments
flyerpride01
Thu, Sep 23, 2010 : 9:17 a.m.
Rufus Pipkins is one of the most underrated coaches in washetnaw county..He has the flyers geared for a playoff spot something that hasnt happened in ages.. Flyers 26 melv. ab&t 12
flyerpride01
Thu, Sep 23, 2010 : 9:14 a.m.
Can u say flyers in the playoffs? can u say Coach pikins has the flyers playing confident and fun football.. willow run 26 melvindale ab&t
Blue Marker
Thu, Sep 23, 2010 : 6:16 a.m.
Skyline lights up the Rats for 42. Go Eagles!!! Tecumseh...watch out for #32 on the Dreads D...he's a beast!