Predicting the Big Ten on the eve of conference play: Will Michigan make a Jan. 1 bowl?

With Big Ten play beginning in earnest this week, Michigan football beat writer Dave Birkett revisits his preseason predictions and makes some hard and fast guesses about the season ahead. What have we learned so far and what do the next two months hold? Keep reading to find out.

I admit it. I underrated Michigan in my preseason predictions.

I had the Wolverines going 6-6 this year, not bad considering they were coming off a three-win season, starting a freshman quarterback and dealing with allegations of NCAA violations. What I didn't realize was how mature that freshman would be and just how much those allegations would unify this team.

After watching Michigan run through its first three non-conference games, I can safely say the program is ahead of where I thought. That's not to say things are in the clear just yet. Injuries are sure to take their toll at some point, and Tate Forcier's bound for a bad game or two.

But in the mediocre Big Ten, six wins is too few. Penn State is still the best team in the league, and Ohio State is a close No. 2, but Michigan is in the next tier with Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan State. And the Wolverines' offense is good enough to keep them in just about every game.

I think Michigan beats Indiana this week, runs into trouble the next two, but finishes 8-4 with upsets of Illinois and Wisconsin on the road. That's good enough to tie Iowa for third place in conference, but the Hawkeyes, based on their head-to-head victory, get sent to the Outback Bowl for the second straight year (the game's had plenty of repeat visitors in the past).

Michigan winds up back in San Antonio for the Big Ten's final Alamo Bowl appearance, and the Wolverines play Oklahoma State in the shootout of the postseason. It's a fine finish considering where the Wolverines came from - and especially since better days are ahead.

Here's a few more predictions to peruse as conference play gets going. Share your own in the comment section at the bottom of this page.

Bowl projections
Rose: Penn State vs. USC
Capital One: Ohio State vs. LSU
Outback: Iowa vs. Ole Miss
Alamo: Michigan vs. Oklahoma State
Champs Sports: Wisconsin vs. Wake Forest
Insight: Michigan State vs. Texas A&M
Little Caesars: Illinois vs. Central Michigan

Offensive Player of the Year: Penn State QB Darryl Clark - He's played as well as advertised so far.

Defensive Player of the Year: Michigan State LB Greg Jones - If you could guarantee me Sean Lee would be healthy, I'd take Lee by a nose.

5 things we've learned about the Big Ten through three weeks:
• Ohio State still can’t win the big game. The Buckeyes had USC on the ropes in Columbus two weeks ago, but folded against a freshman quarterback in the final minutes. Ohio State's now lost six in a row against top-five teams, and the chances of the Big Ten cracking the national championship picture appear slim. The Buckeyes can still win their fifth straight conference title, but no one puts much stock in that outside the Midwest.

• Michigan State is up to its old tricks again. Expectations were sky high for the Spartans entering the season. Then they lost to Central Michigan. Then, in a late choke job, to Notre Dame. Now, the team picked third in the preseason poll faces a 1-3 start if it can’t win at undefeated Wisconsin Saturday.

• The league is serious about sportsmanship. Already, the Big Ten’s handed out two one-game suspensions for non-football actions on the field. Michigan’s Jonas Mouton was benched for striking a Notre Dame player in the face last week, and Purdue’s Zach Reckman was suspended Wednesday for the forearm shiver he delivered against Northern Illinois.

The punishment didn’t seem to fit the crime in either case, but now that the Big Ten’s taken a stand it can’t back down. Players would be wise to keep their inadvertent elbows to themselves over the next two months.

• Eric Decker is the league’s best offensive player. He’s not as exciting as Penn State’s Clark or Evan Royster, and not as explosive as Ohio State’s Terrelle Pryor or Illinois’ Arrelious Benn, but Decker has been phenomenal through three games. He leads the league in receptions and receiving yards, and he nearly led Minnesota to an upset of Cal with a touchdown pass and this gutty catch.

• Defense still rules. Penn State, Ohio State and Iowa rank 1-2-3 in the league in scoring defense, and no one would be surprised if those three end up representing the Big Ten in Jan. 1 bowls. The Nittany Lions haven’t played anyone of note, but they haven’t allowed more than a touchdown in any game, either. Ohio State is the only Big Ten team with a shutout to its name, and Iowa’s allowed one offensive touchdown in the last 10 quarters.

3 more thoughts for the road
• Penn State's going to lose one game this year, at Illinois, Oct. 3. I don't trust Ron Zook or Juice WIlliams, but that team is talented enough to put things together for one Saturday and the Nittany Lions get caught napping. Make it two losses, actually. The Nittany Lions lose to USC in the Rose Bowl again, albeit in a much more competitive game.

• Brandon Graham finishes the year with five sacks, but it doesn't affect his draft status. Graham gets one sack against Indiana, Iowa and Ohio State, and two against Wisconsin, but his motor's enough to get him a late-first, early-second grade. He goes to Cleveland with the second pick of the second round.

• Florida does not repeat as national champs. Heard a talking head - I forget which one - say today that Florida's offense isn't the same without Percy Harvin. Totally agree. Tim Tebow's still a very good college player and that defense borders on great, but Texas and Colt McCoy win the title and the Heisman Trophy this year.