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Posted on Tue, May 11, 2010 : 12:13 p.m.

A look at off-season Big Ten basketball rankings

By Michael Rothstein

John-Beilein-051110.jpg

University of Michigan basketball coach John Beilein could be looking at a rebuilding season in 2010-11.

Angela J. Cesere | AnnArbor.com

The Big Ten has avoided a massive shakeup this off-season.

Purdue could have had two huge defections if E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson had chosen to remain in the NBA draft. Same would have been the case at Illinois if Demetri McCamey and Mike Davis elected to turn pro.

Yet all four stayed, along with Penn State’s Talor Battle, which leaves the Big Ten with two early entries into the NBA Draft and the potential for one of the strongest conferences in the country in 2010-11.

Here’s a heading-into-summer guess of how the Big Ten could play out next season:

Remember, though, things can always change between now and October.

1) Purdue - Even if Moore and Johnson had gone, the Boilermakers would have been one of the Top 5 teams in the Big Ten. With the pair, they are one of the best teams in the country. Robbie Hummel, the team’s leader, returns as well. So, too, do guards Lewis Jackson and Kelsey Barlow. If those five start, it might be one of the Top 3 starting fives in the nation. Add in a couple of Rivals.com Top 101 recruits in guards Terone Johnson and Anthony Johnson and the nucleus is there for a Final Four run.

2) Illinois - There was an argument to be made that Demetri McCamey was as valuable to the Illini last year as Evan Turner was to Ohio State. That McCamey returns - along with Mike Davis - for another year in Champaign is reason for optimism for Illinois. Add in another year of experience for D.J. Richardson and Brandon Paul and Illinois has a talented, tested nucleus along with one of the nation’s top recruiting classes in Rivals.com four-star recruits in guard Crandall Head, forward Jereme Richmond and 7-footer Meyers Leonard.

3) Ohio State - Turner may have left for the NBA but the rest of Ohio State’s rotation returns from a Top 10 season a year ago, including David Lighty and William Buford. The Buckeyes might take a small step back from last year as their dynamic freshman class acclimates themselves to college basketball but by midseason - Big Ten season - they should be ready to go. Freshmen Jared Sullinger and DeShaun Thomas should slide in to Ohio State’s rotation immediately and become impact players for the Buckeyes, who are going to be deeper than last year’s Big Ten championship team.

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Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo signals from the sidelines during the second half of Michigan's 57-56 loss on Tuesday, January 26, 2010 at Crisler Arena.

Melanie Maxwell I AnnArbor.com

4) Michigan State - Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers are back, but the loss of Raymar Morgan will be bigger than anticipated. The Spartans will still be a top team in the league, but Morgan provided the senior leadership and was a critical piece for State. In any other league in the country, Michigan State would be no lower than second, but in this year’s Big Ten they’ll be fighting to stay in the Top 4. But as it always seems, Michigan State will make the NCAA tournament and then advance further than any other Big Ten team because it is what Tom Izzo always does.

5) Northwestern - If Northwestern is ever going to make the NCAA tournament, it is going to be this year. Junior John Shurna emerged as a star last year and he’ll have more help this year with the return of Kevin Coble. The two give the Wildcats two of the more versatile players in the league. As long as Drew Crawford improves from a good freshman year, the pieces are there for a potential tournament berth. The biggest concern is replacing Jeremy Nash at the top of the 1-3-1. If Northwestern falters, it is due to the same things that hurt Michigan last season - the loss of an underrated senior leader and heightened expectations. This group, though, is more experienced than the Wolverines from 2009-10.

6) Wisconsin - It never seems to matter what the Badgers lose on the court. Bo Ryan always has them in the mix for the Big Ten title and a NCAA tournament berth. Jon Leuer is the team’s star and guard/forward Rob Wilson might end up being the breakout player in the Big Ten in 2010-11. A lot of the role players from last year’s NCAA tournament team also return for Wisconsin, which will end up in the NCAA tournament. As always.

7) Minnesota - The Gophers lose a lot. Do-everything guard Lawrence Westbrook and shot-blocking forward Damian Johnson both ran out of eligibility. Paul Carter transferred to Illinois-Chicago. Yet Minnesota still has one of the best coaches in the game in Tubby Smith and an imposing frontcourt in Ralph Sampson III and Colton Iverson. Devoe Joseph also became a good guard by the end of the year and Minnesota also has Blake Hoffarber, one of the best shooters in the country.

8) Indiana - Slowly, Indiana has been improving after the Tom Crean took over the Kelvin Sampson Salvage Yard Show two years ago. The Hoosiers frontcourt will be young and talented with sophomores Christian Watford and Maurice Creek. Creek was on his way to Big Ten freshman of the year honors before he fractured his kneecap prior to the Big Ten season. Add another year in Crean’s system and a talented guard in junior Verdell Jones III and Indiana is likely to make a postseason this year even if they are likely a year away from challenging for a NCAA tournament bid.

9) Penn State - The Nittany Lions have gone through some upheaval in the offseason. Guard Chris Babb and forward Bill Edwards transferred. When Talor Battle declared for the NBA Draft, Penn State appeared headed for the bottom of the league. But Battle chose to return and will play his senior year with his brother, Taran Buie, in the backcourt. D.J. Jackson and Jeff Brooks also provide experience in the frontcourt. Combined, that could be more potent than anything Michigan or Iowa has.

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Michigan sophomore Zack Novak will be Michigan's best returning player next season.

Melanie Maxwell I AnnArbor.com

10) Michigan - DeShawn Sims is gone. So is Manny Harris. Combined, that leaves Michigan needing to replace 34.9 points and 13.6 rebounds a game. They were also the two players who took the majority of the end-game shots for Michigan. That doesn’t sound daunting, until you realize the Wolverines’ leading returner is Zack Novak, who averaged 7.4 points and 4.3 rebounds last season. Plus, no returning Michigan rotation player is taller than 6-foot-5.

11) Iowa - The Hawkeyes will have a new coach in Fran McCaffery, a potentially drastic new style chance since McCaffery’s teams ran the floor at Siena and doing it all without their best player from a season ago, Aaron Fuller. Iowa will be good eventually. Just not this season in a packed Big Ten.

Comments

Macabre Sunset

Wed, May 12, 2010 : 9:09 p.m.

Michael, you need to own it if you feel MSU is a fourth-place team. Last season's scenario was unusual. The fourth-place team in the Big Ten has been an average of more than 3 games behind the first-place team over the last 12 seasons. Only twice (last season and in 2001-02) was the fourth-place team within one game of the leader. And MSU has averaged a third-place finish over that time span. Sparty has been a major force in basketball, you have to give them that. It's not just the Final Fours. Yes, it's just guesswork. We can all make guesses. If you want to justify writing a column, you need to back up those guesses and not start hedging the minute you face criticism. I would respect your opinion much more if you made a case for MSU falling off a little next season despite the obvious positives. Now that you've hedged, you can't even say "toldja so" if it happens.

Shonuff

Wed, May 12, 2010 : 5:01 p.m.

Oh Rothstein, your logic is seriously flawed. First you say MSU will "be fighting to stay in the Top 4" and then in your comments, you state that MSU is in the top tier. You can't have it both ways. Sometimes people screw up. Just admit it and say you screwed up. I see know evidence of "educated guesses" in your blog.

kristofor Vrondran

Wed, May 12, 2010 : 12:06 p.m.

I see that Katz (and you for that matter) took a stretch with Michigan last year. A lot of people did, what John Beilein did that was a complete disappointment, and might cost him his job at end of this year. Two of the top 10 talented players in the Big Ten on his team and his team regressed? However Katz also had all Final Four teams in the top 11 last year in his preseason poll. THAT is an educated guess. My problem is not that you have MSU at #4, but why you have MSU at #4. You have them because they lost Morgan, who was the teams second leading scorer. However this guy had his best season as a Spartan as a Sophomore, and was never the floor leader that was expected of him. The most inconsistent Spartan in recent memory. Then the fact that you reference the recruit classes of each of the top three teams in your poll, but do not reference MSU's who other than OSU had the best in the Big Ten. In all fairness, I am a Spartan grad, but I am not a total homer and more than willing to tell you if MSU has fallen, but with 8 of the top 9 players coming back and the #6 recruiting class in the nation with two impact players from day one, I just do not agree with your educated guess that Illini or even OSU will finish ahead of them. The fact that that MSU has Izzo you should put them in from any Bruce Weber team. Anyways Michael, the 'Cuse should have a good year and contend for a Big East title with all their talent, Joesph, Jackson and Triche and the incoming Fab Melo. However they will have some growing pains, especially playing in the worlds largest lacrosse arena.

N. Wolf

Wed, May 12, 2010 : 10:23 a.m.

You state: "understand that right now, no matter what anyone says, it is all just an educated guessing game." But your guess is not using anything educated from what I can tell. Purdue and MSU are standalone Tier 1. Don't justify Illinois and OSU's existence towards the top with freshman classes, especially considering MSU has a better recruiting class than Illinois next year, and Back-to-Back final fours for the core of our roster. OSU has a Kentucky like class this year, however Kentucky like classes don't always pan out, especially when you lose the best player in the Nation the year prior- See UNC last year as an example. If this is your "EDUCATED" Guess, then I guess its safe to say your education came from the University of Michigan. Maybe not even AA, maybe Dearborn or Flint. I don't know, you tell me. That's just my educated guess of your credentials based on this article.

fabb2004

Wed, May 12, 2010 : 10:10 a.m.

This guy can't be serious???? MSU at 4?? Come on man.....Your bias is pretty obvious...the only worse would be saying that UofM would win the Big10 next year. Look Purdue, OSU, Ill, and WIS will all be good teams next year. I see the Big 10 title coming down to Purdue, MSU, and OSU, or maybe even WIS next year. Even Illinois will be good next year. But I don't see how you place MSU under all these teams considering that the only person they lose is Morgan?? He was inconsistent and kind of a baby at times. Roe played all year on a torn meniscus, Allen was hurt from the Big 10 tournament on, K.L was out, and they still go to the final four??? Not to mention Green, the best big guy we have, and an ever improving Nix that will play valuable minutes off the bench. All these guys are coming back along with the #6 class in the Nation, including another quick good shooting guard, and a Forward that can post up and take you off the dribble. I know you write for AnnArbor.com, but seriously click your heals together and go back to the fairy land where you wrote this article. Yes I am a Spartan fan, but even if I wasn't, almost nobody would argue that they will at least be in the championship talk next year, not finishing fourth. In the words of Keyshawn Johnson....."Come on man!!!"

fabb2004

Wed, May 12, 2010 : 10:08 a.m.

This guy can't be serious???? MSU at 4?? Come on man.....Your bias is pretty obvious...the only worse would be saying that UofM would win the Big10 next year. Look Purdue, OSU, Ill, and WIS will all be good teams next year. I see the Big 10 title coming down to Purdue, MSU, and OSU, or maybe even WIS next year. Even Illinois will be good next year. But I don't see how you place MSU under all these teams considering that the only person they lose is Morgan?? He was inconsistent and kind of a baby at times. Roe played all year on a torn meniscus, Allen was hurt from the Big 10 tournament on, K.L was out, and they still go to the final four??? Not to mention Green, the best big guy we have, and an ever improving Nix that will play valuable minutes off the bench. All these guys are coming back along with the #6 class in the Nation, including another quick good shooting guard, and a Forward that can post up and take you off the dribble. I know you write for AnnArbor.com, but seriously click your heals together and go back to the fairy land where you wrote this article. Yes I am a Spartan fan, but even if I wasn't, almost nobody would argue that they will at least be in the championship talk next year, not finishing fourth. In the words of Keyshawn Johnson....."Come on man!!!"

Michael Rothstein

Wed, May 12, 2010 : 9:08 a.m.

Kristofor, OK, if you're going to make that argument about Katz, let's look at his rankings last year. http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=katz_andy&id=4105841 Michigan was No. 9. Oklahoma was No. 12. Both teams fell way out of the rankings last year. So just because the national guys whom I respect very much have a team high doesn't mean anything. Also, understand I'm not saying Michigan State is going to be under-.500 or anything. Read the blurb. Still say State will likely have a longer NCAA tournament run than anyone else and fourth in next year's Big Ten could be one game out of winning the thing. But if you're going to use others' rankings as an argument, understand that right now, no matter what anyone says, it is all just an educated guessing game.

aarox

Wed, May 12, 2010 : 6:02 a.m.

OSU picked up 4 top-100 players including the #1 power forward in the country and the #4 shooting forward. They will miss Evan Turner right up to the time these kids hit the court. MSU picks up 3 top-100 players including a top 5 guard and returns a full clip and recruiting Nix and Sherman last year. And the odds are they will not have a run of injuries like last year for a long time. Meanwhile we are going backwards. We have a couple of good recruits in Smotrtcz and Hardaway, but when are we going to get back into this game?

kristofor Vrondran

Wed, May 12, 2010 : 1:03 a.m.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=katz_andy&id=5179956 Andy Katz also has MSU behind Purdue. #1 Preseason Duke #2 Preseason Purdue #3 Preseason MSU Hahaha, this clown has MSU #4 in the Big Ten, Andy Katz who sole job is to study college basketball has them #3 in the country. Take off those Maize and Blue glasses Michael.

Charlie

Tue, May 11, 2010 : 8:14 p.m.

First of all, if you picked Michigan to be a top team last year you clearly are a homer. Michigan State has a top 10 class coming in and only lost Raymar Morgan. Morgan was a good player, but let's be real he averaged 10 points a game and less than 10 rebounds. He was in constant foul trouble and pulled disappearing acts every other game. Appling will make up the points and an improved Nix and the addition of two big men this year will make up for the rebounding loss. Summers will be much improved and Allen's defense will continue to get better. Also, keep in mind, Illinios hasn't made the tourney with this core group and Purdue has under achieved with their group as well. MSU has it's best chance to win a National Title since 2000, don't be a hater because you work in Ann Arbor.

braggslaw

Tue, May 11, 2010 : 7:55 p.m.

To build a great program you can get lucky pick the right coach (Tom Izzo, Matt Painter etc.) or you can hire a mercenary like Pitino or Calipari. Ellerbe was a fall guy, nobody was going to win at that time in Michigan bb history. Tommy Amacher seemed to be a good hire but he was not the Kwizats Haderach. Tommy was a good try that ended in failure. I give Bill Martin a pass on Tommy. BUT John B. is not going to succeed at Michigan. All you need to do is look at the roster. System or not you need horses, and JB has no horses. He instead has a roster of pot belly pigs and ponies. I cannot give a pass to Bill Martin on this hire. It seems as if he went to the other extreme when he should have settled somehwere in the middle. JB will get his time next year and he may succeed (though the odds are stacked against him) at that time Brandon has to make the decision to cut bait. Two decades of basketball purgatory can destroy the tradition of a basketball progrm.

Engineer

Tue, May 11, 2010 : 7:33 p.m.

All this hub bub over MSU and point is we do NOT care. Point is that Michigan should be in top three of big ten by now with a decent staff. BB only requires 3 or 4 top recruits to put a program on the map. 3 classes in and JB has delivered nothing. When Michigan missed all post season last year the search should have been on for a new coach. We are doomed to anther year of dissappointment. Please Mr. Brandon bring us a program we can be excited about again. GO BLUE!!!

JimB

Tue, May 11, 2010 : 7:04 p.m.

Micheal R, where have you been? Didn't you watch the Final Four outcome a few months ago? Let's get real, man. Must be a slow news cycle for the need to stir up the Spartan Faithful.

Macabre Sunset

Tue, May 11, 2010 : 3:58 p.m.

I have to agree. Seems like attention-grabbing to "guess" that Sparty will drop to fourth next season. Sad to say I believe you're being optimistic about Michigan. Novak was terrible when he saw the floor, constantly pushed aside as if he weighed 150 pounds. I don't see where Beilein is going with this team, and he might well not be around this time next year.

Guy

Tue, May 11, 2010 : 3:55 p.m.

Sorry last comment... on the 'Senior Leadership'. Morgan was a good kid, but he was the furthest thing from a leader. Draymond Green becomes the undisputed captain and leader as an upperclassmen, and MSU goes from one senior to three. Wow... I can't find one accuraty in the assessment of MSU. I love when Media plays the "MSU wasn't good, Izzo just finds a way" theory, as this blogger does. MSU had team turmoil, and clearly underperformed during the regular season. That couldnt be more obvious based on the tourney run with half a team, but the media still loves to go with the "Izzo is a magician" theory.

oscar

Tue, May 11, 2010 : 3:52 p.m.

Michael, your argument is since blue basketball underachieved last year Sparty has a chance next year? That's why you put them 4th? Are you serious? I agree with "manniefresh".. This is nothing more than to get a reaction from readers. Again, no rationale or evidence to back up such a ranking. I took the bait.. you got me.. I will learn next time.

Guy

Tue, May 11, 2010 : 3:42 p.m.

Key 2010-11 additions: -------------- Lucas (Out) Allen (injured and ineffective) Roe (injured and largely ineffective) Nix - Very promising center, but too young to trust in tournament Sherman - Promising center, but too young to trust in tournament Appling - McD's all american guard Payne - 5 Star center/PF prospect, one of best shotblockers in country Yeah! I'm sure MSU's going to have to 'hang on' without Morgan, Izzo has just 7 players to choose from to help replace him. What a crock.

braggslaw

Tue, May 11, 2010 : 3:36 p.m.

I think you are giving Illinois and OSU too much credit. Purdue still has a depth issue.

Guy

Tue, May 11, 2010 : 3:27 p.m.

I wont give him Purdue. Purdue loses two senior starters, and they're not a deep team. Everyone made such a huge deal about Hummel, which was an exaggeration in the first place. But maybe it does point to how thin they are. MSU made the final four with 3 major injuries to starters. Roe and Allen were playing on torn meniscus and tendon. Their two promising freshman centers barely played. And they're getting in a top 5 class with two instant impact blue chippers. You add the injuries up, assume the freshman centers become rotation players, and the new recruits, MSU introduces 7 impact players to a team that made the Final Four. And they lose just Morgan. This article is a biased. MSU should be a runaway preseason #1. The only reason Morgan is 'perceived' to be such a loss is because of how thin the roster was at the end of the year. Morgan was a very solid player with a very limited offensive game. Izzo has a huge arsenal of replacements that can do everything he did and actually fit specific positions better.

pero

Tue, May 11, 2010 : 3:05 p.m.

Michael, Okay I admit that I AM a Spartan fan right off the bat so no hidden agenda here. That said, what exactly about Raymar Morgan did YOU like last year?? The guy was lucky to keep his starting job! You are about the ONLY person who had a wet spot for him and that take into consideration nearly all of MSU and of course those voting for All Conference players. This guy was a no show. You could hate MSU (and that's okay) but they will still be rated preseason top 5 in the country so according to you the Big Ten is the best conference in the land and Ohio State, Illionis and Purdue are all out in front????? Pffffft, what are you smoking?

msubball05

Tue, May 11, 2010 : 3:03 p.m.

MSU has back to back final 4's, they only lose Morgan and they gain one of the top rated freshman classes in the nation. Explain to me how Illinois is better than that? I want specifics. And explain to me how OSU is better when they lose THE BEST PLAYER IN THE NATION. There freshman class is nowhere as good as Kentukcy's was and we all saw how far a team goes with all freshman.

manniefresh

Tue, May 11, 2010 : 2:32 p.m.

This is too funny. A writer makes a bold (read: dumb) prediction in order to create a few waves and up his page views. This play is straight out of the Drew Sharp handbook of journalism. Michigan State as the 4th best team in the Big Ten next year? Hahahaha! Am I on Candid Camera? I am, right? A team wins the Big Ten, goes to the Final Four, loses one player, returns everyone else (including America's best coach,) and signs a top-5 recruiting class... And falls to 4th in the conference? Please. No writer with any real knowledge of the sport can truly believe this. Articles on deck for Wednesday... "Denard Robinson, Heisman Favorite," and "LeBron James, Not a Good Basketball Player," by Michael Rothstein.

kristofor Vrondran

Tue, May 11, 2010 : 2:23 p.m.

I agree Purdue might be the best team with their depth going into next year. However Illini and OSU over MSU? MSU has the same nucleus that has been to back -to- back final fours. I like the fact that you brought up recruits for OSU (#1 recruiting class), Purdue (not in the top 25) and Illinois (#9) but did not mention MSU's class (#6) but mentioned the one starter they lost. If anyone is going to be hurt by losing a senior it would be Purdue with Chris Kramer. Hummel might be their best player, but Kramer was their leader. In the tournament, he was the X factor that made them go farther than anyone expected. Morgan was not the X factor for MSU to get to the FF, that was Summers who will be back next year. The comment "There was an argument to be made that Demetri McCamey was as valuable to the Illini last year as Evan Turner was to Ohio State", I almost sharted laughing so hard. Were you watching the same team that I saw in Champaign? The one that did not even make it to the NCAA tournament. If he was that important, he would have never let them lose so many close games.

mcflies

Tue, May 11, 2010 : 1:49 p.m.

Raymar Morgan's loss won't be as big if Delvon Roe can ever get healthy. Appling and Payne are two big time recruits. MSU will be top 3 at worst, but Purdue looks like they might be the team to beat. OSU is going to have to be led by freshmen. Michigan takes the biggest hit with Harris leaving, and he might take an even bigger hit if he goes undrafted.

Michael Rothstein

Tue, May 11, 2010 : 12:59 p.m.

Trigg7, You asked about football... I think Michigan can contend for a bowl berth but not much beyond that.

trigg7

Tue, May 11, 2010 : 12:55 p.m.

If you thought UM was going to be a top team last year, then i can see why your picks are so screwed up.I tried to get you to tell me where UM would finish in the BIG TEN after seeing them early,but no go.I kept saying 7th from day one.It realy isnt that hard to pick.You can be a little off but calling a bad team a ranked team is not very good. So what about the football team this year? Let me guess 1st.

Michael Rothstein

Tue, May 11, 2010 : 12:13 p.m.

Oscar, Realize two things. 1) There's still a long way to go until the season starts. 2) Pretty much all of the national media (and myself as well) thought Michigan was going to be a top team last year. That didn't materialize. There are always a few teams each year that lose a piece that doesn't necessarily look incredibly important but became the glue. That said, I'm not predicting doom for Michigan State. Just think Illinois and Ohio State, right now, could be better. If you were to do this in tiers, I'd go Tier 1: Purdue, Illinois, OSU, MSU; Tier 2: Northwestern, Wisconsin. Tier 3: Minnesota, Indiana. Tier 4: PSU, Michigan, Iowa.

Tom S.

Tue, May 11, 2010 : 12:11 p.m.

I got a chuckle out of this. Ohio State without Evan Turner was not a top 10 team last year, so I have a hard time seeing how they're going to be #3 in the Big Ten this year now that Turner has left for the NBA. Illinois at #2? Seriously? MSU at #4???? (oh, wait, you're from Ann Arbor, so that explains how you could overcome reason and logic and drop them lower than #2). Raymar Morgan is a great athlete, but often was a no-show in big games, so I don't think Sparty will miss him as much as you think. Wisconsin behind Northwestern at #6???? I think the only thing you get right in this article is Purdue at #1. You were close with Michigan at #10, but they could easily show up #11. I agree with "oscar" - the BigTen in 2010 is all about Purdue and Michigan State (with Wisconsin keeping those two honest and fighting for the title).

NoBowl4Blue

Tue, May 11, 2010 : 12:02 p.m.

OSU does have some studs coming in. I think MSU. Purdue and OSU will battle again.

oscar

Tue, May 11, 2010 : 11:41 a.m.

This article has no substance. ALL other national media has Sparty in the top 5 and most have them at number 2 in the country. The author produces NOTHING to make us think that OSU and Illinois should be above Sparty. Illinois didn't even make the tournament last year. I am not sure that Sparty will miss Morgan that much. Draymond Green will more than fill that void and is a much better team player. With a healthy Roe, improved Nix, and the incoming freshman.. This league is a two team race PERIOD... Purdue and Sparty.. No one else is even close.

Yelmonian

Tue, May 11, 2010 : 11:26 a.m.

I'll give you Purdue. They should be top. But Illinois is given way too much credit until they actually do something. MSU has too much new talent coming in to be four. And there is no way you should ever count out a Bo Ryan coached team. Wisconsin is too low at 6.