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Posted on Sat, Oct 15, 2011 : 5:59 a.m.

3 keys to a Michigan victory against Michigan State, and 3 keys to a loss

By Kyle Meinke

MSU_Interception.jpg

Michigan State's Johnny Adams, left, and Trenton Robinson hone in on a fourth MSU interception after Michigan's Roy Roundtree couldn't pull in a long pass during a 34-17 loss last season at Michigan Stadium. Eliminating turnovers is one of three keys to the game for Michigan.

AnnArbor.com file photo

Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson said he hasn't watched tape from last year's game against Michigan State.

Not that he really has to. The wounds remain fresh.

The Spartans threw several blitz packages at Robinson last year, and he did not handle the pressure well. He threw three interceptions, rushed for fewer than 100 yards for the first time all season and the Wolverines lost 34-17 to Michigan State at Michigan Stadium.

The key to victory this year for 11th-ranked Michigan (6-0, 2-0 Big Ten) when it plays 23rd-ranked Michigan State (4-1, 1-0) on Saturday rests, as it almost always does, in the hands — and feet — of its junior quarterback.

3 KEYS TO VICTORY

Michigan will win if it can …

1. Hang onto the football. Fleet of foot quarterback Denard Robinson has thrown three interceptions twice this year, against Notre Dame and Northwestern, which also happen to be Michigan's closest calls. The Wolverines prevailed thanks to a flawless fourth quarter and second half, respectively. They lost against MSU last year, when (ta-da) Robinson threw three picks.

2. Win the rushing battle. It's been talked about all week, but bears repeating: The team that has won the rushing battle has won the game 38 of the past 41 years. Furthermore, the Wolverines' offense is predicated on the run and is led by Robinson, the Big Ten's leading rusher. If Michigan can't outrush MSU, it has no chance.

3. Apply pressure on the QB. MSU quarterback Kirk Cousins has struggled this year. By putting pressure on him, Michigan may force Cousins into mistakes — turnovers always are a key in rivalries — or at least prevent him from finding star receiver B.J. Cunningham. Cousins also is a far less effective passer when he's flushed out of the pocket.

-- by Kyle Meinke, AnnArbor.com

*****

Michigan State will win if it can...

1. Run the ball and control the clock. Michigan State has won the last three games in the series in part because of a 613-274 advantage in rushing yards - a 339 advantage. Offensive balance and clock control are key components for the Spartans, and teams do that by running the ball.

2. Contain Denard Robinson and not let him throw the knockout punch. Robinson, a junior quarterback, leads the Big Ten Conference in rushing, and last week threw for 337 yards and two touchdowns, and rushed for 117 yards and two touchdowns in a win over Northwestern. MSU can't afford to allow those kind of numbers or a huge play in the fourth quarter.

3. Play clean on special teams. A botched field goal attempt, fumbled punt, blocked punt and bad center snap are things that have happened on special teams for Michigan State already this year. If they happen in a hotly contested rivalry game, it can spell disaster in the always-important turnover battle.

-- by Greg Johnson, Grand Rapids Press

*****

Read Johnson’s “3 Keys” column on MLive.com.

He knows this.

"This is why you come to the University of Michigan," Robinson said this week. "For games like this, to be in this position."

There has been one distinct variable that has determined victory in this rivalry, and that's the rushing game, as 38 of the past 41 winners have outgained the other on the ground. This would seem to be a built-in advantage for the Wolverines, who rank seventh in the country in rushing.

That starts with Robinson, who leads the Big Ten with 120.0 yards per game on the ground.

But this year's matchup has a little different make-up, as Michigan State now features the nation's No. 1 defense, and it's going to look to do the same thing it did last year: Force Robinson to the air, and confuse him when he's there.

He threw three interceptions last season, which proved to be the difference in the game.

"We had too many turnovers," Robinson said. "We just got to come out better than that. We got to come out executing and ready to play."

That is the biggest key to Michigan ending its three-game losing streak to the Spartans. For as well as they can rush the football, the Wolverines cannot afford to give away possessions or field position against the top defense in the country.

Last week's win against Northwestern provided a tidy capsule of this good Denard/bad Denard dichotomy. In the first half, Robinson threw three interceptions as Michigan fell behind 24-14. In the second half, he threw zero and the Wolverines scored 28 unanswered points.

He remains the key, and whether Michigan wins will be a function of how much he has the ball in his hands.

Of course, the flip side of that is the Wolverines' defense needs to get stops.

"When you have an offense like we have, you have to get the ball in D-Rob’s hands," Michigan defensive coordinator Greg Mattison said this week.

"That’s kind of what you keep thinking a lot of times when you’re making your calls on defense — ‘Let’s try to get the ball back to him’ — because our offense? I’m certainly glad we’re not playing against our offense.”

In this game, that starts up front — especially if the Wolverines are to win the all-important rushing battle. Last year, Michigan State's stable of three backs — Le'Veon Bell, Edwin Baker and Larry Caper — ran for a combined 262 yards.

This year, the Wolverines think they have an answer to stopping the Spartans' running game.

“That’s what a great defense is built on,” Mattison said. “You can measure a defense on how they stop the run, in my mind. We’ll get challenged. That’s what it’s going to be. They can throw it, too. It’s not like we can put 10 guys up there (on the line). This is going to be another test.”

It'll be Michigan's biggest test of the year, but one it can pass if it wins that rushing battle and hangs onto the football.

Kyle Meinke covers Michigan football for AnnArbor.com. He can be reached at 734-623-2588, by email at kylemeinke@annarbor.com and followed on Twitter @kmeinke.

Comments

Jaxon5

Sat, Oct 15, 2011 : 9:37 p.m.

In hindsight, Kyle was on the money with the keys to the game. Actually, someone changed the locks I think. Michigan has a long way to go to compete with MSU. While this was closer than a Rich Rod game would ever be, it still wasn't close. MSU was in the Michigan backfield more than Michigan was in its own backfield. UM was over-powered today, for the fourth year in a row.

DonAZ

Sat, Oct 15, 2011 : 7:36 p.m.

3rd down efficiency: Michigan 3 for 15; Michigan State 7 for 14. Add to that 2 for 4 on 4th down. So that makes it 5 for 19 on moving the chains. Michigan just couldn't get it done when they had to. I'll leave it to smarter football minds than me to say *why* they couldn't get it done. FWIW, I think Robinson was playing hurt from early the game ... minor, but nagging ... he just wasn't himself.

riverraisin

Sat, Oct 15, 2011 : 3:48 p.m.

With the windy, gusty conditions today, I believe this game will be won on the ground. The key for Michigan is for the O-line to open up holes big enough for the backs to run through. We've got enough backs to stay fresh throughout the game. Running offensive formations that confuse their D and keep them off balance wouldn't hurt either. Michigan has a huge advantage with their coaching staff. Go Blue! Beat the fighting irish...or is that colorado state? I can't tell who's uniforms those are.

Keith

Sat, Oct 15, 2011 : 2:29 p.m.

Win or Lose. This game will determine the outcome of this season. Truely a pivot game. If we can limit turnovers, bottom line we win.

azwolverine

Sat, Oct 15, 2011 : 3 p.m.

It certainly will determine whether UM has a chance at going undefeated or not, which I don't think most people ever thought they were going to do anyway. Other than that, though, I'm not sure how this game "will determine the outcome of the season." Win or lose, there are a lot of games left, including OSU, that will all play a role in determining the "outcome of the season." Without question, this is a HUGE game during the course of the season and would go a long way into putting the past three years behind us. However, unlike MSU which bases it's ENTIRE season on this one game, Michigan doesn't and will continue shaping the 'outcome of this season' in the 6-7 games that remain after this. That said, the team and all of our fans want this one badly. Go Blue!

DonAZ

Sat, Oct 15, 2011 : 2:46 p.m.

Oh come on ... it'll certainly contribute to the overall assessment of the season, but I do not believe this one game will determine the whole season. If Michigan beats MSU but loses to Illinois, Nebraska and Ohio State then this MSU game fades into the background. Similarly, if Michigan loses to MSU but beats Illinois, Nebraska and Ohio State then the MSU game fades into the background.

DonAZ

Sat, Oct 15, 2011 : 1:26 p.m.

Hoke said it in the Friday practice video -- don't turn the ball over and don't take dumb penalties. Let's assume neither team turns the ball over or commits more than a few harmless penalties. Then what? 3rd down conversions -- making and stopping. I am convinced that beyond turnovers, the 3rd down conversion stat is the one that tells the story about who won the game.

BlueGator

Sat, Oct 15, 2011 : 10:50 a.m.

The biggest key to the game by far: which Denard Robinson shows up in the first half. UM needs DRob to be a strong, steady leader right from the get-go. He doesn't need to have a spectacular personal stats day, just no poor passing decisions and/or mechanics. MSU is too good defensively to allow UM to crawl out of a deep hole in the second half.