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Posted on Thu, Nov 3, 2011 : 12:59 p.m.

Oddsmaker explains tight Michigan-at-Iowa football line

By Staff

The Michigan football team is 7-1 overall and ranked No. 13 in the nation. The Iowa football team is coming off a loss to Minnesota and is 5-3.

No question which team is the favorite Saturday when Michigan is at Iowa, right? Yes, the Wolverines are favored, but by just four points.

“Despite Michigan having only one loss, it was to the only ranked team they have played this year,” said Adam Young, head odds-maker for, while talking to “And Iowa is tough at home only losing three games over the last three seasons."

What do you think?


Jeff Gaynor

Sat, Nov 5, 2011 : 9:56 p.m.

As to all the analysis from fans who were ready to bet on U-M: "oops"


Sat, Nov 5, 2011 : 6:32 a.m.

Sports writer speak: "Despite Michigan having only one loss, it was to the only ranked team they have played this year," said Adam Young, head odds-maker for, while talking to "And Iowa is tough at home only losing three games over the last three seasons." -- Young may be an odds maker but he's reading too many sports columns. Okay, so Michigan lost to the only ranked team they've played (so far), that team had the No. 1 defense at the time. And - look at the above paragraph and tell me WHERE Iowa is a "ranked team!" ??? As for "Iowa is tough at home" - Michigan vs Iowa in Kinnick Stadium is 2-1 overall. Michigan (and every team!) is "tough at home" but Michigan (even B4 RR) lost to Appalachian State and several other real underdogs over the years. Michigan and OSU have both lost home games, it's not like even the best teams are invincible at home. Iowa is: nobody's "best team." I truly believed that "the home advantage" is over-hyped to the gills - just to maintain interest in foregone conclusion games like THIS ONE is.


Fri, Nov 4, 2011 : 2:05 p.m.

Tomorrow is the day the passing game really clicks for Denard. He will throw for 350 yds and 4 touchdowns and run for 100 yd and one more. The D will have three takeaways. We win 45-10, with the lone Iowa touchdown coming at the end of the game against 3rd string defense. The vegas point spread only proves that Iowa fans aren't good gamblers.

jeff blue

Fri, Nov 4, 2011 : 3:01 a.m.

I like this discussion and it is pretty informative. The Vegas odds do contain a lot of real information (kind of like the stock market), and they are picking Michigan to win AT IOWA. We'll all know the answer in less than two days -- I still believe that it will be: tough, physical, and hardfought game. The talent is clearly with Michigan, but some intangibles favors Iowa. I have been to Iowa and some of there fans are crazy -- there isn't much else to do in Iowa. Fortunately, this is not the 2010 Hawkeyes in their prime.

Lorain Steelmen

Fri, Nov 4, 2011 : 12:19 a.m.

Any way you slice it...its' November and they ALL, are critical games! You have to LOVE, that UM is still in the title hunt! I am so stoked about this game. And in a strange way, I like being 'on the road!' While the UM home uni's are cool, I like the road uni's even better! We are talkin' major TRADITION here. Now, if we just keep Brandon from messing with them anymore. I hope that Kovachs can go, and that he'll be 100%. We ARE going to need that turkey! Good luck Wolves, lets' take one more step toward title #43!


Thu, Nov 3, 2011 : 11:44 p.m.

tl;dr?- the ONLY purpose of a point spread is to draw equal money on both teams. This is how the house maximizes profit. This is an opinion so please bear that in mind when you read the following... having minimal experience in wagering- the objective of a point spread is to draw equal money on both teams, this is the way the "house" reaches it's maximum profit. Remember when the WMU game was called after rain in the 3rd? Well no one was happier about that than Vegas, they were set to lose a metric FORTUNE had the score held up. Early spreads come out late Sunday night/ Monday morning. The "line" or spread will move throughout the week to draw more money in order to equalize the money bet on each team. IF money is even or close to it on both teams the spread will hold. Many factors come into play in creating a public confidence when betting real live money on a team. Weather, injuries, TRENDS...that is the big one. Trends create confidence. Confidence is important when you decide to wager YOUR money. A trend you will hear about this game is that Iowa is tough @ home. Iowa has only lost 3 games in the last 3 years @ home. This means as much to the outcome of the game as the color of the Visitors locker room @ Kinnick. The football field @ the University of Iowa has the same dimensions as the football field @ the Big House. On that field is where the game will be decided. This Michigan team will be prepared, this Michigan team will be coached by an outstanding coaching staff and played by Michigan players that are at the ready to continue their drive towards the B1G championship. You might as well flip a quarter if you plan on wagering money on this game. Vegas generally only makes big mistakes in the beginning of a season before they have enough data. The mistake not being the outcome of the game, but the mistake of having too much public confidence and money on one team. Make sense? Go Blue!


Thu, Nov 3, 2011 : 10:18 p.m.

I doubt Ferentz stop recruiting and stopped being a good coach suddenly. My feeling is we are in for a dog fight against Iowa; like always.


Thu, Nov 3, 2011 : 10:15 p.m.

I BET Michigan will win!


Thu, Nov 3, 2011 : 8:09 p.m.

Frank Beckman said Iowa should be favored? Well in that case it is likely Michigan wins going away


Thu, Nov 3, 2011 : 8:06 p.m.

I understand the thought of Iowa being at home and them having motivation. Typically a home team gets 3 points in spreads. So if this game was at Michigan what would the spread be? 6? Your out of your mind it would be closer to 14. The math does not make sense and Vegas is going to take a beating on this one! I live in Iowa and have watched every game they have played this year. This Iowa team is not good!!! They may be better at home than on the road but it wont make a difference. The only decent team this Iowa team has played was Penn State and they lost 13-3. They should have lost to Pitt. and Northwestern. Their rush D is 69th in the nation against no bodies. Their pass defense is 79th!!!!! This is not your run of the mill Iowa team and to think they are going to all of a sudden be great against a potent offense on the ground and sometimes in the air is just silly! Most of my friends are Iowa fans and they dont even plan on watching the game because they know it wont be close. Dont confuse this confidence with the reality that Michigan could lose this game if they dont play up to their ability! If they do play to their ability they will beat this team badly like Purdue. Loraine I agree that this will be a tough game and that Michigan needs to bring their A game. I just think they will and walk out of Kinnick with a hard earned no doubt about it victory. The offensive output I think is way over inflated! Look at the teams they play to get that high offensive output, Tennessee Tech, Louisiana Monroe, Indiana, Northwestern, Pitt. Do people realize that there are only two teams that Iowa has played so far with winning records!!! One is Penn State and the other is a FCS school. Come On man!!!! Go Blue!

Lorain Steelmen

Thu, Nov 3, 2011 : 7:37 p.m.

Iowa will be a very tough game for UM to beat. Their loss to Minnesota changes the calculas considerably. Further, their offensive output at home, is far superior to their output on the road. Iowa is what msu claims to be , but isn't, namely a tough physical football team. msu is just a cheap shot team. Hoke knows that there will be NO easy games, the rest of the way. Welcome to 'November' in the big ten.


Thu, Nov 3, 2011 : 7:24 p.m.

Iowa will be a tough team to beat even though U-M has the edge in terms of talent. Here's why: 1) Iowa is a very good home team (3 losses in 3 years at home). 2) Iowa just came off an embarrassing loss at Minnesota and wants redemption. They have pride and want to show the Minnesota game was a fluke. 3) They're playing Michigan. Most teams a teams circle the Michigan game on the schedule and make sure they bring their 'A' game in that one because U-M is still the team that most Big Ten teams love to hate.

jeff blue

Thu, Nov 3, 2011 : 6:52 p.m.

Dear Hell, Hold on here. Yes, we agree that Michigan has a better team than Iowa in 2011, but these away games have been very strange in the B10 this year. Iowa will be desperate after a very stupid loss at Minny. I never underestimate the importance of "emotion". That is why the Mike Hart curse will be tough on us; the Spartans now play with incredible emotion in our game. We must always respect our opponent. Frank Beckman said this morning on the radio that Iowa should be favored. Iowa is at home and it will probably be a dogfight. If it is a high scoring game, that will favor Michigan. And I agree that Michigan will win -- but, it may not be easy!!!! GO BLUE


Thu, Nov 3, 2011 : 6:24 p.m.

I'd drop $500 on that line without blinking. In fact, I'm going to go do that right now.