Poll shows Pam Byrnes with 13-point lead in Democratic primary race for Senate's 18th District
A recent poll conducted by Lake Research Partners shows state Rep. Pam Byrnes, D-Lyndon Township, with a 13-point lead over Rep. Rebekah Warren, D-Ann Arbor, in the race to replace Liz Brater in Michigan’s 18th state Senate district.
The poll shows Byrnes holds the lead over Warren at 30 percent to 17 percent, with 50 percent of voters undecided.
After voters hear positive profiles of both candidates and a series of messages contrasting the two, Byrnes expands her lead to 25 points — 45 percent to 20 percent, the poll shows.
The poll also shows Byrnes leads every age group, including an 18-point lead among voters over age 55. She has a 4 point lead within Ann Arbor and a 24 point lead outside the city.
Byrnes' campaign announced the results in a press release today, calling it an indication that Byrnes is in a strong position heading into the Aug. 3 primary election.
“These results show voters in the 18th district have seen Pam’s ability to get results, deliver jobs and reform government,” said Byrnes Campaign Manager Kent Sparks. “She has helped to secure tens of millions of dollars for Washtenaw County to repair our roads and bridges, creating much needed jobs. She’s voted to cut the perk of free lifetime healthcare for current and future legislators, dock the pay for those legislators who don’t show up for work and cut the salary of every legislator by 10 percent.”
The poll was conducted last month and included interviews of a random sample of likely Democratic voters in the district. Byrnes' campaign notes only 26 percent of respondents were from the 52nd District, which Byrnes represents, while 74 percent were from Warren’s (53rd District) and from Alma Wheeler Smith’s (54th District).
The results also showed 45 percent of voters view Byrnes favorably, with just 7 percent viewing her unfavorably. Warren’s favorability was 37 percent.
Warren said she's not worried about the poll.
"A poll is only a snapshot in time. The only real poll that matters is on Aug. 3," she said, noting that the poll already is dated.
"This is a Washington-based, out-of-state polling company," she added. "It's not an independent scientific poll. This is something somebody paid for to get a result."
The Byrnes campaign confirmed it did pay for the poll. Sparks pointed out it is a nationally respected polling company.
Warren said she has not used campaign money to pay for any polls. She said she's running a field-oriented campaign focused on knocking on doors, talking to voters and meeting in small groups to share her vision and mobilize grassroots support.
The poll findings are based on 500 telephone interviews with a random sample of likely August 2010 voters in Michigan’s 18th state Senate district. Interviews were conducted from March 11-15. The margin of error is 4.4 percent.
Ryan J. Stanton covers government for AnnArbor.com. Reach him at email@example.com or 734-623-2529.
Fri, Apr 16, 2010 : 11:17 a.m.
We had Byrnes at King's school's activities twice in the past 6 months. I had seen her at our sub's annual gethering every year for the past five years I have lived there. I had to admit I have no idea who Warren is.
Fri, Apr 16, 2010 : 12:51 a.m.
Candidates gather and interpret a multitude of statistics to plan and promote their campaigns. A paid poll is a well used process to gather information about their constituents. The statement that "the Warren campaign was damaged today" is overly dramatic. Warren said she's not worried about the poll. "A poll is only a snapshot in time. The only real poll that matters is on Aug. 3," she said,..." I would assume polls can come up with numbers that are not favorable for a candidate too. Which would show areas to work hard in educating and finding supporters. Washtenaw County has had the privilege to see how Rep. Byrnes works hard to get the job done, not just temporarily filling a need but FIX and sustain that need over time. Pam spends time across the district meeting people of all ages, gender, job skills, education levels, and ethnicity. These people, myself included, respect her intelligence, hard work ethic, knowledge of Washtenaw County and Lansing, and her strong desire to work together to create sustainable solutions to our problems in Michigan. I support you 100% Pam. You are a proven leader and come fall we are going to need your experience, intelligence and cool-level head to continue moving forward in re-tooling Michigan.
Thu, Apr 15, 2010 : 10:33 p.m.
@Peter J. Perez: Please spare us the typical rhetoric by claiming Byrnes is out of touch. Thats the default excuse when a person is backed into a cornersame old, same old. Frankly, Im not surprised by these results. Byrnes is always in the community interacting with her constituents; shes been active in the community as long as Ive been here, which is over 25 years. Theres no one who has come through more for Washtenaw County than Pam has. Im supporting her 100% because shes a proven leader for our community.
PETER J. PEREZ
Thu, Apr 15, 2010 : 7:43 p.m.
I am a retired Washtenaw County Sheriff's Officer. I remember how Ms. Byrnes treated in those early years. She was not very professional and looked down her nose at me. I don't know if it was because I was an officer, a man or a Latino. All I know through the years it was always the same, total disrespect and not acknowledging our exisitence. A few years ago, I had the opportnity to campaign for the candidate that beat then sheriff Dan Minzi. I had the pleasure of meeting State Rep. Rebekah Warren through at functions for and she was so pleasant, professional and sincere in her approach and acceptance of people who talked to her. Ms. Byrnes' tactic in using a nationally recognized poll means she paid for the exclusivity to have it her way. Typical of someone who has lost touch with the constituents unlike Ms. Warren. State Representative Warren, my family and friends salute you and you will beat out Ms. Byrnes if we can help you in anyway.
Thu, Apr 15, 2010 : 5:49 p.m.
This doesn't look like the "new digital model of journalism" so much as well, substandard journalism. I mean, it's not like there was a fire here and the story needed to be broke while we received details as they came in. You admitedly based the article "off a press release the Byrnes campaign put out." Either A2.com got played by the Byrnes campaign, or you are biased in your reporting of this race. Either way, the Warren campaign was damaged today. And the reputability of the pollster is irrelevant. It was not an independent poll. They were PAID by the Byrnes Campaign, so the newsworthiness of this story is diminished. But if A2.com insists on echoing campaign statements and calling it news, at least let us know up front, not in the fifth paragraph, but in the headline, which should have read, "Byrnes Campaign Releases Poll..." If it did I for one would not have made it this far.
Ryan J. Stanton
Thu, Apr 15, 2010 : 4:10 p.m.
@Alan Goldsmith I agree that would have been ideal. If I can explain, the original post was based off a press release the Byrnes campaign put out. I've since worked to get more information about the poll and heard back from Rebekah Warren as well. The story has been updated to reflect the new information. The new digital model of journalism is to break the story and update readers with new information as that information becomes available.
Ryan J. Stanton
Thu, Apr 15, 2010 : 3:14 p.m.
The Byrnes campaign just confirmed it did pay for the poll. Sparks pointed out it is a nationally respected polling company. The poll findings are based on 500 telephone interviews with a random sample of likely August 2010 voters in Michigans 18th state Senate district. Interviews were conducted from March 11-15. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. The memo from the polling company states that Byrnes holds a double-digit lead over Warren, 30 percent to 17 percent, with 50 percent undecided.
Thu, Apr 15, 2010 : 3:13 p.m.
ACORN and the ACLU are clients of Lake Research. This is a liberal polling group. The key question remains....Who paid Lake Research and were the full poll results released by the Byrnes camapign???
Thu, Apr 15, 2010 : 2:56 p.m.
I'm always a little skeptical when a politician conducts and pay for their own poll. There's much more credibility when an independent poll is conducted.