Michigan to add 38,600 more jobs than previously projected, U-M economists report
The University of Michigan today released an updated economic forecast that paints a brighter picture of the state's jobs outlook over the next two years.
Economists now project that Michigan will add 126,100 jobs in 2011 and 2012. That's 38,600 more jobs than they had predicted in November.
The upward revision comes as Michigan's unemployment rate is on a steady decline. The state recently reported that the number of unemployed Michigan workers fell below 500,000 in February for the first time since November 2008. The state's jobless rate fell to 10.4 percent in February, down from 10.7 percent in January and 13.5 percent in February 2010.
The economists now predict that Michigan will add 64,600 jobs in 2011 and 61,500 in 2012. In November, they had predicted that the state would add 24,500 jobs in 2011 and 63,000 in 2012.
The U-M economists said the crisis in Japan would "slow the pace of progress" for the U.S. auto industry, but not enough to "derail Michigan's recovery."
In fact, the rapid recovery in the manufacturing industry is credited with boosting the economy.
Job growth hit an annualized rate of 3.8 percent at the beginning of 2011, though that will slip to 0.8 percent in the second quarter and 1.1 percent by the end of the year, the economists projected. The rate will average 1.9 percent in 2012, they predicted.
The economists also are projecting that personal income growth will hit 5.1 percent in 2011 and 2.9 percent in 2012. Michigan residents' personal income fell 3.1 percent in 2009 and rose 2.8 percent in 2010.
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Comments
jcj
Thu, Apr 7, 2011 : 12:50 p.m.
My point is you can take an "educated" guess or any guess and go broke relying on the predictions. Are you ready to put your future in the hands of the professional "educated guessers? If you are not willing to gamble on their "educated" guess whats the point of putting any stock in them? They keep revising their projections. Lets wait until July and see what they are. Then they can revise them again next Nov.
David Briegel
Wed, Apr 6, 2011 : 3:23 a.m.
Um, I believe a projectied forecast would probably be an educated guess. Your point is?
jcj
Wed, Apr 6, 2011 : 12:26 a.m.
Economists now project that Michigan will add 126,100 jobs in 2011 and 2012. That's 38,600 more jobs than they had predicted in November. And if these guys are so smart why didn't they 'predict" the loss of all these jobs a couple years before it happened? Nothing more than an "educated" guess!
Dog Guy
Tue, Apr 5, 2011 : 1:48 p.m.
Are these real jobs or government positions?
clownfish
Tue, Apr 5, 2011 : 12:54 p.m.
Gov Snyder has been in office 90 days, where is the rapid job growth? Why isn't unemployment down to 5%? TP'ers expected Obama to turn around a whole country in 3 days, why is Snyder and the GOP controlled congress so far behind? Is it "uncertainty" about new taxes? Is it poor "leadership"? Is Snyder even a citizen?
Veracity
Tue, Apr 5, 2011 : 12:48 p.m.
Exactly what model is being used to predict these jobs? Can any references be provided? With an estimated 495,000 Michigan residents unemployed, only 25% are expected to find jobs in the next two years. While any increase in employment is desirable, about 369,000 unemployed remain. As time goes on the skills of the unemployed deteriorate and finding new jobs becomes more difficult. The only practical program for getting full employment in the next couple of years depends on a major stimulus input from the federal government aimed at improving the infrastructure (roads, bridges, utilities and land reclamation). Meanwhile, the unemployed workers need to identify the job skills needed for future employment and get retrained for these jobs. The state could certainly help here but our governor will not support retraining efforts.
Tom Joad
Tue, Apr 5, 2011 : 12:10 a.m.
Does this include part of the 50,000 McDonalds is hiring?
say it plain
Mon, Apr 4, 2011 : 10:35 p.m.
Hmm, interesting numbers for income growth the last couple years in MI, but this website <a href="http://united-states.reaproject.org/reap-report.php#pg3" rel='nofollow'>http://united-states.reaproject.org/reap-report.php#pg3</a> shows that in 2005 dollars, the income growth for MI for the years prior to 2009 even were, moving backward from 2008 on back to 2001, -.59, -.01, .05, -.98, -.95, 1.62, -.32, .60 ....so, just to get a sense of the stagnation and negative trends for a while now...
DonBee
Mon, Apr 4, 2011 : 9:48 p.m.
500,000 - 64,600 = 435,400 to go. I hope this news is true and that all the jobs materialize. I also hope they guessed low and the real number is higher. We need the jobs. As to income, for most folks in private employment, almost any increase in private income was consumed by increases in health care and other deductions. So while it looks good to say 5.1 percent, I doubt most people's take home pay will move up at all.
Barry
Mon, Apr 4, 2011 : 9:19 p.m.
Curious what type of jobs we can expect in Michigan. Will a worker have to work two or three of these new jobs in order to provide basic necessities?
Cash
Mon, Apr 4, 2011 : 11:45 p.m.
Excellent point. McDonalds is hiring 50,000 in one day across the country. That could be part of it.
Cash
Mon, Apr 4, 2011 : 9:16 p.m.
New job, eh? These are jobs that will be added-brand new? How many jobs will be lost? Any figures there?
Nathan Bomey
Mon, Apr 4, 2011 : 9:18 p.m.
The numbers cited by U-M are net new jobs. In other words, the economists say that, by the end of 2012, Michigan will have 126,100 more jobs than it had at the end of 2010.
SillyTree
Mon, Apr 4, 2011 : 9:13 p.m.
I have a job. Can I have a good one? I kind of need to retire in 10 to 20 years and I am at a new start in life. Will there be room for new starters? Can I retire. Will someone allow euthenasia so that when I can't work and can't fend for myself someone will please kill me?
godsbreath64
Mon, Apr 4, 2011 : 8:20 p.m.
Isn't that special having The University of Michigan to lend their alumni these figures.