Ann Arbor’s retail landscape hasn’t varied much over the years: The strong demographics in the market and limited supply meant competition for spaces stayed fierce and prices stayed high.

But today, the real estate behind our local stores is changing.

The supply is different: Developers expanded the number of retail sites in high-traffic corridors, like Plymouth Road and Washtenaw Avenue. And they went farther west to tap the population migration into nearby communities, opening new centers in Saline and Scio Township.

The pricing is different, too. While some commercial real estate brokers say prices are falling - sometimes because existing tenants are asking for concessions - others say Ann Arbor’s shopping center landlords are still charging rates higher than the market reality.

That reality, they say, is Ann Arbor’s retail vacancy is about 10 percent.

The vacancy figure is based on estimates from those in the industry and the regional surveys that track larger spaces in the market.

The figure is higher than this city has seen in decades.

Today’s front page story on AnnArbor.com explores how the holiday season is critical for local retailers.

It’s not hard to see the signs that this season could be make-or-break for retailers. That’s not limited to the local, independent retailers - several chain stores are on investor watch lists.

Even the average customer can walk into a Borders Books & Music or Sears and notice the sales floors aren’t jammed with merchandise - a situation that speaks both to how much a retailer is willing to commit to inventory and how their sales-per-square-foot ratio is likely changing.

And that change is likely pushing more revenue into covering operating costs and less to the bottom line.

So goes the world of retail during a national recession.

Many local retailers are making choices this year about their businesses - with the driving question for some being: “Can I afford to continue?”

Some Ann Arbor business owners are already deciding that no, they can no longer operate. Fresh Seasons, Pear Tree and the Espresso Royale on Carpenter Road are all recent casualties of the market.

On the real estate side, the driving question becomes: “Who’s next in line to take this space?”

The answer to that is changing in Ann Arbor, too.

We now see prime real estate in proven shopping centers going unfilled. The best examples: the former Circuit City in Arborland and the former Linens ‘n’ Things on Lohr Road (both temporary homes to Halloween stores).

“They should be filled,” said retail broker Mike Lippitt of Landmark Commercial Realty Services.

Lippitt works with many national and regional tenants, and they’re not lining up like anymore to enter or expand in Ann Arbor. That’s despite the area being one of Michigan’s “soft landing spots,” as Lippitt describes Ann Arbor’s relative immunity to the recession.

But still-high prices and retail instability mean they’re willing to sit on the sidelines until something in the equation improves.

On the local side, Jim Chaconas of Colliers International has turned his Westgate Mall into a shopping center where local stores can align with a mix of nationals. There, too, he has uncharacteristic vacancies.

And the number of well-capitalized startup or established retailers able to sign a lease to move in has fallen off dramatically.

“People are knocking on the door and we want to give them a try (in a space), but they don’t have the financial ability,” Chaconas said.

Today, Ann Arbor’s real estate trends suggest local stores that close in coming months won’t be replaced with a national chain with out-of-area ownership.

Instead, they may not be replaced at all - at least for some time.

Paula Gardner is Business Director for AnnArbor.com. She can be reached at (734) 623-2586 or by email.