Top 5 political factors to watch during Michigan's gubernatorial primary

"I have no clue who will win the Republican nomination for governor," pollster Mark Grebner told the Grand Rapids Press. "Each of the top three can claim a path to first place."

Michigan's five GOP candidates for governor debate earlier this year.

AP photo

"It really is wide open, and it's all about turnout now," Calvin College political science professor Doug Koopman told the Detroit News.

EPIC-MRA polls released last week by the Detroit Free Press and WXYZ-TV showed the three top Republican candidates were in a statistical tie for the lead and the two Democratic candidates were within eight points of each other.

Precincts will start reporting votes after polls close in most of Michigan at 8 p.m.

At that point, keep an eye on these signs for hints of where the election might be headed:

1. How are Ann Arbor venture capitalist Rick Snyder and Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox performing in West Michigan?

U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra is expected to dominate the polls on the state’s conservative west side. In fact, a poll conducted by Practical Political Consulting for The Grand Rapids Press indicated 42 percent of likely GOP voters from West Michigan plan to vote for Hoekstra. Cox and Snyder each had 17 percent.

Watch the West Michigan vote totals for Cox and Snyder. If they’re high, Hoekstra is in trouble. But if Hoekstra wins big in West Michigan, he has a good chance of winning the nomination.

2. Is Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard taking votes away from Cox in Southeast Michigan?

Bouchard saved hundreds of thousands of campaign dollars for a strong ad push during the last week - the only period during which many voters pay attention. The campaigns believe voters who defect from the Cox camp may migrate to Bouchard.

Bouchard has spent most of the campaign calling for tougher immigration laws and saying Michigan needs to become a “right-to-work” state. Those positions appeal to Cox's conservative base.

“With money now at his side and GOP voters likely starting to tune in, watch for Bouchard to make his run away from also-ran status to become a serious contender,” Hotline On Call blogger Dan Roem wrote last week.

3. Is turnout high or low?

It’s a political cliché by now, but it’s still relevant. Turnout sways the results. Experts agree high turnout is good for Snyder because he’s openly asking Democrats and independents to cast their ballots for him in the Republican primary.

Low turnout probably benefits Hoekstra and Cox. Secretary of State Teri Lynn Land is predicting that 1.7 million voters will cast ballots, reflecting 23 percent of registered voters. That compares to 18 percent in 2008’s primary.

The campaigns seem to think Land’s prediction is too generous, though. Cox’s campaign, for example, expects only 700,000 to vote in the Republican primary, according to the Detroit News.

4. What’s happening in Genesee County?

High turnout there is good for Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, the favorite to win the Democratic nomination over Speaker of the House Andy Dillon. The Genesee County Democrats have reportedly been running TV ads criticizing Dillon for not adequately supporting unions.

Those attacks resonate in the Flint area, where the union base may come out strong to support Bernero, a self-proclaimed champion of organized labor.

5. How will the Tea Party vote affect the race?

This is difficult to track statistically, but anecdotal evidence might provide clues on how this political movement will influence the race. Hoekstra, who joined the Tea Party Caucus in the U.S. House of Representatives, is making an appeal to those voters by stressing his willingness to cut down on the size of government.

Cox and Bouchard are also in a position to reap benefits from the Tea Party movement. But Snyder, who has not actively sought to appeal to the Tea Party, could also get some of those votes because many Tea Party members are angry at politicians.

Contact AnnArbor.com's Nathan Bomey at (734) 623-2587 or nathanbomey@annarbor.com. You can also follow him on Twitter or subscribe to AnnArbor.com's newsletters.