Michigan's bowl hopes may hinge on beating Purdue

Michigan safety Michael Williams pumps his fist after making a play in the first half against Illinois last Saturday. Williams and the Wolverines face Purdue this week in a must-win game.

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

"When we got to four wins quickly it kind of seemed like, ‘Oh, we’ll get six,’” offensive guard Steve Schilling said. “Sometimes maybe people kind of thought it would come a little too easily. And it hasn’t, obviously.”

Six is the magic number for teams hoping to play in the postseason, and Michigan (5-4, 1-4) needs one win in the final three weeks to become bowl eligible.

The Wolverines close the season against top-25 teams Wisconsin and Ohio State, so today’s home game with the Boilermakers is their best chance for a victory.

Purdue (3-6, 2-3) hasn’t won in Ann Arbor since 1966 and is coming off a 37-0 blowout at the hands of Wisconsin.

Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez said he didn’t talk much with his team this week about bowl possibilities, and he doesn’t think he has a desperate team on his hands.

“What’s desperate?” Rodriguez said. “I’ve never, ever used that. You want to have a hungry team, I guess. A team that’s hungry to prove themselves, but I think you want that whether you’re winning or losing.

“I don’t want our guys looking at some fatalistic view of this last ballgame. It’s in the past, we can’t redo it over again. Let’s worry about this next game.”

Michigan’s fortunes took a nosedive early in the second half last week when it failed to convert four straight running plays from the 1-yard line. Illinois, the worst team in the Big Ten, answered with a 99-yard drive, and rolled off 31 straight points to for a 38-13 win.

Rodriguez urged his players to stay loose this week to not let that game beat them twice.

“I don’t think we’re going to be so tight, but we know that it’s an important game,” defensive end Brandon Graham said. “But hopefully after we beat Purdue it’ll calm down a little bit, a little pressure off of us.”

Purdue has been the most erratic team in the Big Ten this year.

When the Boilermakers are on, they look great. They beat Ohio State with ease three weeks ago and lost nail-bitters to Oregon and Notre Dame earlier this season.

When they’re off, they look like the worst team in the league. Along with last week’s meltdown in Madison, Purdue has dropped home games to Northern Illinois and Northwestern.

“They’ve hurt themselves at times like we have,” Rodriguez said. “But I think they’re playing with a great deal of confidence. I think they were playing with confidence even before they beat Ohio State, but after they beat Ohio State you could sense that.”

Like Michigan, Purdue has struggled with turnovers this year. The Boilermakers lead the Big Ten with 26 turnovers, while Michigan is last in conference with a minus-10 turnover margin.

The Wolverines have 12 turnovers in their last three Big Ten games and haven’t had a takeaway since Donovan Warren returned an interception for a touchdown on the second play from scrimmage 28 days ago against Iowa.

Rodriguez knows the turnover battle will be crucial today.

“I said this earlier in the season when we were winning games and I'll say it now when we lost the last couple,” Rodriguez said. “We are not good enough to play poorly and win. We're not at that point experience-wise and talent-wise. That's the facts.”

Dave Birkett covers University of Michigan football for AnnArbor.com. He can be reached by phone at 734-623-2552 or by e-mail at davidbirkett@annarbor.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.