John Beilein, Michigan basketball program can make a case for an NCAA tournament berth
A late-season surge in Big Ten play has coach John Beilein, freshman Tim Hardaway Jr. and the Michigan basketball program on the NCAA tournament bubble.
Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com
John Beilein deflected and dismissed questions about the NCAA tournament worthiness of the Michigan basketball team for much of the season.
At best, he would mention “a day where you are judged at the end of the season,” as he did Dec. 18 after Michigan beat Oakland.
As the Wolverines maneuvered through the Big Ten - starting 1-6 in league play and rallying to finish at 9-9 - Beilein opened up about peeking at other teams on the bubble and gauging where his team stood.
Now, with Selection Sunday less than a week away and Michigan coming off a 70-63 victory against Michigan State to conclude the regular season, Beilein is ready to talk about the Wolverines’ chances to be part of the NCAA field.
“When we’re looking at the teams we’ve played, when I watch Kansas warm up I’m (thinking), ‘This could get ugly.’ And all of a sudden there’s (Zack) Novak hitting a three and putting us up (in overtime),” Beilein said. “I said this team has a chance to play with a lot of people.
“So I think that who we played and how we played and take the Purdue game out -we didn’t play as well in that one - but all the other games we played, even the ones we lost by 12, 14 (points), it was tied at half or something. So yeah, it feels like other (NCAA) teams, but I’ll let the committee take care of that.”
Among the ways the NCAA selection committee will look at Michigan:
- RPI: As of Monday morning, Michigan has an ratings percentage index of 56 and a strength of schedule of 18, according to CollegeRPI.com. Michigan has three RPI Top 50 wins — two over Michigan State (currently No. 48 in the RPI) and Harvard (No. 35). Overall, Michigan is 3-8 against the RPI Top 50.
- The record: Michigan, for NCAA tournament consideration purposes, is 18-12 overall instead of 19-12 because the selection committee will not consider Michigan’s win over NAIA school Concordia in December.
- Recent play: Michigan is 8-4 in its last 12 games, including two wins over fellow bubble team Michigan State, a win over bubble team Penn State and a loss to Illinois. Michigan, the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, will face Illinois on Friday (approximately 2:30 p.m., ESPN)
With that in mind, Michigan players and coaches are keeping an eye on these games Monday:
- The CAA championship game: Old Dominion is in the tournament, win or lose. Virginia Commonwealth could have a bubble case but would likely be below Michigan if it loses tonight’s title game. If it wins, VCU potentially steals a bid from another team. (ESPN, 7 p.m.)
- The West Coast Conference championship game: Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s are both bubble teams, so one will snag the automatic bid. The other will be thrown into a pool along with Michigan. In looking at the Crashing The Dance profiles of both schools, it might be better off for the Wolverines if Saint Mary’s beats Gonzaga as the Gaels have a slightly stronger profile. Either way, the loser of the WCC title game is going to be fairly close to Michigan when the committee looks at at-large teams. (ESPN, 9 p.m.)
- Also: The rest of the Monday night games are for one-bid leagues, although Michigan would be helped or hurt by Oakland’s performance in the Summit League tournament, which continues Monday with the semifinals (ESPN3, 7 p.m. against South Dakota State).
Comments
Rob
Wed, Mar 9, 2011 : 8:15 p.m.
When Michigan played at Illinois, I though Illinois would soundly beat them because Michigan doesn't win in Champaign. But watching the second half, Michigan was the better team and outplayed them. If they could of hit any shot (Stu Douglas needs to be benched not starting) the would of pulled it off. Stats @Illinois Michigan 3-point shooting 2-18 Stu Douglas 2-11. He was 1-9 and jacking up a fade-away shot with plenty of time left on the shot clock with under 2 minutes left. Why was he in the game?
Jackson
Wed, Mar 9, 2011 : 12:04 p.m.
ILL is going to crush us, hate to say it. Dimitri McCamey is a senior with alot to say about his final days at Illinois. I think we are still to high on ourselves after beating MSU. I hope those victory's against MSU are enough for the NCAA committee to get us into the big dance! Quality wins like that are what we need to get on to the next level.
trigg7
Tue, Mar 8, 2011 : 4:22 p.m.
NIT maybe. ILL takes M out no problem. Unless M get the calls like the last game, refs running over to change calls. No fouls under basket. Game not at home, so all done!
John B.
Tue, Mar 8, 2011 : 8:21 p.m.
How's the weather up there in Lansing today?
Pablo
Tue, Mar 8, 2011 : 2:05 p.m.
This appears to be sports-related. So, that is the section in which it belongs.
Theo212
Mon, Mar 7, 2011 : 11:11 p.m.
All coaches from WVU can turn us around. All coaches.
Macabre Sunset
Tue, Mar 8, 2011 : 1:47 a.m.
Apparently, they both have.
Macabre Sunset
Mon, Mar 7, 2011 : 7:24 p.m.
It's tempting to look at this from the perspective of how many teams the Big Ten will send, but the committee has made it clear that each team is judged individually. The pros for Michigan: - Stronger recently - Lots of quality wins - An RPI just high enough to get in - Very high schedule strength - When you look at Michigan's performance against other bubble teams (MSU, Penn State, Clemson, Minnesota), it's very positive The cons for Michigan: - No signature wins, unless you count the sweep of 16-13 Michigan State or the nail-biter at home over Harvard, which doesn't have any signature wins itself - The blowout loss at Indiana (though, to be fair, there are only about 20 teams that don't have a bad loss somewhere) The bubble competition isn't as strong this year and the field is now 68 teams. If the field were chosen today, Michigan would be an 11 or 12 seed. I think a win over Illinois solidifies the bid and gets them into the main draw, and a loss means it's nail-biting time, but they might well sneak into one of those new first-round games.
David Vande Bunte
Mon, Mar 7, 2011 : 3:50 p.m.
This is still going to all come down to how Michigan does in the Big Ten Tournament. Beating Michigan State certainly helps, as it gives Michigan a convincing argument to be placed ahead of MSU in consideration...but that only matters if the NCAA selection committee is thinking about MSU. Even discounting the Concordia game, Michigan has a better regular season record, and a season sweep over the Spartans. They have also played much better over the past month than MSU has. Clearly, Michigan overall, is a better basketball team. That doesn't mean that they are a guaranteed lock to make the NCAA Tournament though. Had they managed to beat Kansas or Ohio State even once, I think they would be almost a lock. But they didn't win those statement games. Michigan needs to at least beat Illinois in the first round to even be considered, I think. That would give them a win over a team that they are in direct competition with for a potential NCAA bid. If the Big Ten gets 6 bids to the NCAAs, it might not matter, and Michigan is in regardless. However, if the Big Ten is only going to send four or five teams to the dance, Michigan and Illinois would probably be that fourth or fifth team. Beating Illinois would probably secure that spot for Michigan, losing probably means NIT. Michigan would probably already be favored over MSU and Penn State, by virtue of sweeping them both, but we only have a loss to Illinois, Michigan needs to make up for it. After that, I think they are in fairly good standing.